How Accurate Are Calculators for IBUs?

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BSheridan

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So I got a beer kit for Christmas from Homebrewsupply. Its the simply juice pale ale kit. When I plug the numbers into brewers friend, the IBUs come out in the 70s for this recipe. That seems like its going to be really bitter. Has anybody made this kit before?
 
Lots of things factor into IBU.

Does "beer kit" = extract brewing? If so, many of these are concentrated boils. Perhaps, the kit expects one to add water after the boil has finished to get 5 gallons. Hop utilization suffers in a concentrated boil.

Possible to post the ingredients and instructions?
 
Lots of things factor into IBU.

Does "beer kit" = extract brewing? If so, many of these are concentrated boils. Perhaps, the kit expects one to add water after the boil has finished to get 5 gallons. Hop utilization suffers in a concentrated boil.

Possible to post the ingredients and instructions?

Its an all grain kit, 10lbs of pale ale malt, 1.5lbs flaked oats. Mash @150 for 60mins

60 minute boil
.5oz simcoe @60 min

1oz amarillo
1oz centennial
.50z simcoe @5 min

1oz amarillo
1oz centennial
.50z simcoe Whirlpool @180 15mins

1oz amarillo
1oz centennial
.50z simcoe Dry hop 5 days
 
I can't comment on the kit, but as to the subject of how accurate the various IBU calculators (or the various IBU formulas, such as Rager, Tinseth, Moseur, Garetz, etc...) are, I would imagine that they should "generally" get you to within about +/- 35% of where a lab IBU test determines your beers IBU's are actually sitting at. I did see one test whereby the software guess was roughly 70% off from lab tested IBU's though.
 
I can't comment on the kit, but as to the subject of how accurate the various IBU calculators (or the various IBU formulas, such as Rager, Tinseth, Moseur, Garetz, etc...) are, I would imagine that they should "generally" get you to within about +/- 35% of where a lab IBU test determines your beers IBU's are actually sitting at. I did see one test whereby the software guess was roughly 70% off from lab tested IBU's though.

This is valid as the calculation methods are different. However, 35% is HUGE.
 
This is valid as the calculation methods are different. However, 35% is HUGE.

I more specifically intended to express that any individual one of them will only "in general" likely get you to within about +/- 35% of lab tested reality.
 
That wont be a very bitter beer if you want to reduce it even further skip the whirlpool and add them in as dry hops. Some rice hulls may not be a bad idea with a pound and a half of flaked oats in the mash, if you have access to them. Either way it will make a good beer
 
While the IBU number may be high, it's the perceived bitterness that counts. With only .5oz. of Simcoe at 60 and the remaining hops at 5 or post boil, the perceived bitterness should be quite reasonable. Most of what you'll get out of the hops in the kit is flavor and aroma.

The calculated IBUs are just numbers and vary with which calculator you use, your process, the brewing software and how you have it set up.

I use the Tinseth formula and set utilization % to compensate for my altitude as well as a small percentage to dial in the bitterness of my beers to a point that I perceive them to closely match commercial beers of similar styles with similar IBUs. I assume the IBUs in the commercial samples I use for comparison are measured.

Sticking with one of the formulas will give you a consistent starting point to build on. Making adjustments until you perceive the bitterness to be "right" will make that formula work for you. Like many other things we use in brewing, these formulas are tools and often require input from you, the brewer.
 
Yes, I understand. Not disagreeing or putting you down. Just expressing 35% is a large variant. That's, overall 70% (+/- 35).

Yes, and it makes it rather humorous to watch people literally slave over manipulating hop addition times and quantities in a futile attempt to hit a target IBU square on the nose.
 
I use the Tinseth formula and set utilization % to compensate for my altitude as well as a small percentage to dial in the bitterness of my beers to a point that I perceive them to closely match commercial beers of similar styles with similar IBUs. I assume the IBUs in the commercial samples I use for comparison are measured.

Well written. Bob, BTW, received the M44 yeast. Plan to use soon. Thanks for the recommendation.
 
Yes, and it makes it rather humorous to watch people literally slave over manipulating hop addition times and quantities in a futile attempt to hit a target IBU square on the nose.

To me, brewing is similar to Mother Nature. Not exact. Some winters are cold and snowy. Some are less snowy and less cold. Some summers are blistering hot and humid, some less. Brewing, at least to me, is the same. :)
 
Won't the dry hops only add aroma and not bitterness. Whereas, the 180F whirlpool will extract some bitterness? I ask as I want to learn...

You get flavor and aroma from dry hopping and yes you will get more bittering from whirlpooling the hops than using them as dry hops that's why I said if he wants to further reduce bitterness don't whirlpool just use those hops as additional dry hops
 
IBUs actually mean something very specific and can be exactly known. It's just difficult to calculate. Most moderate to large craft brewers with their own lab can and do actually measure actual physical IBUs.

The recipe in question doesn't seem overly bitter. If it's a worry, omit that 60 min Simcoe, add it with the 5 min hops instead.
 
You can indeed get bitterness from dry hopping. Oxidized alpha acids contribute a different bitter compound than iso-alphas from the boil, and that can be extracted when dry hopping (I don't care to look up the research, I know it was presented at CBC and I think the same presentation was done at NHC/"Homebrewcon" at some point).

In my experience, that bitterness tends to be harsh and unpleasant. Whenever possible I try to only dry hop with unopened hops in original nitrogen flushed barrier bags, and as fresh as possible. Even vacuum sealed hops have been problematic.
 
You can indeed get bitterness from dry hopping. Oxidized alpha acids contribute a different bitter compound than iso-alphas from the boil, and that can be extracted when dry hopping (I don't care to look up the research, I know it was presented at CBC and I think the same presentation was done at NHC/"Homebrewcon" at some point).

In my experience, that bitterness tends to be harsh and unpleasant. Whenever possible I try to only dry hop with unopened hops in original nitrogen flushed barrier bags, and as fresh as possible. Even vacuum sealed hops have been problematic.

Not discounting the info or your input. The info is valid, but in my experience has only with very, very old hops. I'd imagine the hops included with the kit are not oxidized. HomeBrewSupply know that they are doing. These are knowledgeable folks. Did the hops smell old?
 
Not discounting the info or your input. The info is valid, but in my experience has only with very, very old hops. I'd imagine the hops included with the kit are not oxidized. HomeBrewSupply know that they are doing. These are knowledgeable folks. Did the hops smell old?
If they're in original package and unopened, even a few years should be ok. Probably not as potent for aroma OR bittering, but no off-notes. What I'm talking about I've had happen with opened and resealed (vacuum sealed) hops after just a couple months. Didn't smell as vibrant as fresh, but certainly not cheesy. Note that I'm not talking a *severe* problem, but enough that I certainly noticed it. If I smell cheesy with hops I won't brew with them at all.
 
Calculators are good to about 1 significant digit. Tinseth equation is more accurate than any other, and all tend to overestimate a bit compared to reality. So, your 70-something IBU beer might be 70 IBUs, or perhaps 60 or even 50.

My own calculation which is based on Tinseth with adjustments for whirlpool calculates about 77 IBUs. Might actually be in the 60s. Hard to say for certain. Cheers.
 
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If they're in original package and unopened, even a few years should be ok. Probably not as potent for aroma OR bittering, but no off-notes. What I'm talking about I've had happen with opened and resealed (vacuum sealed) hops after just a couple months. Didn't smell as vibrant as fresh, but certainly not cheesy. Note that I'm not talking a *severe* problem, but enough that I certainly noticed it. If I smell cheesy with hops I won't brew with them at all.

Yes, I agree. Absolutely.

Avoid by freezing the hops. Allow the hops to warm to room temp before using. I have hops, over 10 years old, that I've froze, with no problems.
 
Yes, I agree. Absolutely.

Avoid by freezing the hops. Allow the hops to warm to room temp before using. I have hops, over 10 years old, that I've froze, with no problems.
Oh they were definitely in the freezer. The issue is that home model vacuum sealers and vacuum bags aren't 100% with hops. The oils and dust prevent a perfect seal. Jars work better but take up more space.

If hops are opened once and immediately resealed and the seal holds, probably less of an issue. The more/longer they're opened (say, a pound opened, and reopened every time an ounce or two is pulled out then resealed) or if the seal doesn't hold (constant problem I had with FoodSaver sealer/bags), that's the issue.
 
Oh they were definitely in the freezer. The issue is that home model vacuum sealers and vacuum bags aren't 100% with hops. The oils and dust prevent a perfect seal. Jars work better but take up more space.

If hops are opened once and immediately resealed and the seal holds, probably less of an issue. The more/longer they're opened and if the seal doesn't hold (constant problem I had with FoodSaver sealer/bags), that's the issue.

Well, I simply double freezer bag mine and have had zero issues. You are in Arlington, VA. Willing to take a trip to Manasass, VA to simple my homebrew. I welcome your visit.
 
Thanks for the input guys. If beer smith is saying around 50, brewers friend is saying around 70 and the recipe sheet that came with the kit is saying 60, hopefully it ends up somewhere right around that 50-60 mark. I'm just going to follow the instructions and see how it turns out.

Hopefully the perceived bitterness will be relatively low and it'll be a nice brew
 
Sounds like Brewers Friend isn't taking something into consideration whereas the others are taking these into consideration.

Brew it and send a few to us for evaluation. That's a great idea!

I use brewersfriend and I've noticed many times the IBUs it calculates seem much higher than what people say Beersmith gives them. Not exactly sure why. The default AA % the sites use for each hop variety may differ but I wouldn't imagine that significantly.
 
I use brewersfriend and I've noticed many times the IBUs it calculates seem much higher than what people say Beersmith gives them. Not exactly sure why. The default AA % the sites use for each hop variety may differ but I wouldn't imagine that significantly.

I actually adjusted the AA% to match what is on the packaging for my hops and still got that high number. I'm just gonna brew it and see how it turns out and if I don't like it, I'll adjust the next time around
 
When I stated that IBU calculators will "typically" get you to within +/- 35% of reality I should have stated that odds favor your actual IBU's (as tested by a lab) falling somewhere to the low side of software projection much more often than to the high side of this +/- 35% range.

In addition, all of these calculator formulas predate (or at least never considered) pellets, so Tinseth himself once stated that for pellets "all bets are off". I for one believe that he meant it.
 
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I actually adjusted the AA% to match what is on the packaging for my hops and still got that high number. I'm just gonna brew it and see how it turns out and if I don't like it, I'll adjust the next time around

I think that sounds like a plan. IBUs in the 70s isn't that bitter for me, but everyone's tastes are different. Plus perceived bitterness depends on more things than just IBUs. Best way to dial in your recipes is just do it then do it again.
 
As BobBailey suggested, it's all about perceived bitterness. When designing recipes, I personally pay attention to the IBU/SG ratio. For example, your theoretical IBU of 70 for this given recipe could be perceived as very bitter if your OG is something like 1.040. Conversely, if it were 1.070, you'd have a lot less perceived bitterness.

This concept is well displayed with barleywines, which are often in the ballpark of 100 (theoretical) IBU, but have minimal perceived bitterness due to their high gravity and malt profiles.
 
Brewed it this weekend. Its sitting in the fermenter as we speak. OG came out at 1.055 which is actually a couple points over what the recipe estimate was. Dry hop next week and then packaging 5 days later. Will update this thread with how it comes out
 

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