HBT NFL Mock Draft '09

[ohiobrewtus]

I'm hoping that the Lions stay away from Stafford. The success rate of QB's coming out early is incredibly low. Roethlisberger is the only recent exception and even he is no Peyton Manning or Tom Brady. Sure the Lions need a QB, but whiffing on a #1 overall pick sets a team back 5 years (ie Joey Harrington). Like I've said before, I think that they're better off using this offseason and free agency next year to get the players in place to make Sam Bradford successfull when they draft him next year .

If they do take him they better be doing so with the intention of letting him ride the pine and learn for a year. I think that they're better off going with Curry or Smith.

I fully expect the Lions to be one of the front runners should the Broncos actually end up trading Jay Cutler.

 

[the_bird]

I fully expect the Lions to be one of the front runners should the Broncos actually end up trading Jay Cutler.

You know, that thought alone ought to be enough to get Cutler to shut the hell up. He's going to wake up some night yelling, "HOLY CRAP, I might get traded to Detroit! "

Kyle, what do you think about Sanchez? If he were available at around #9, would you trade the #20 and maybe a third-rounder to move up and grab him?

 

[RICLARK]

Ya but instead of bragging that he can throw farther then Elway he can say "Ya I can definatley throw farther then Scott Mitchell and oh ya Charlie Batch".

 

[the_bird]

Don't be dissin' Chaz Batch. He was the best QB Detroit had since what, the 1950s?

 

[RICLARK]

Don't be dissin' Chaz Batch. He was the best QB Detroit had since what, the 1950s?

I liked Harbaugh But Batch was sure better then Mitchell,Kitna,Orlovsky,Stanton,O sullivan and I think that Backus can throw better then harrington.

Edit: Lmao I dont know why I said Harbaugh Guess it was because I was reading a article about stanford. I Liked Rodney Peete and Kramer.

 

[ohiobrewtus]

You know, that thought alone ought to be enough to get Cutler to shut the hell up. He's going to wake up some night yelling, "HOLY CRAP, I might get traded to Detroit! "

Kyle, what do you think about Sanchez? If he were available at around #9, would you trade the #20 and maybe a third-rounder to move up and grab him?

I like Sanchez, but only if he falls to them at #20. When you're as bad as the Lions and need as much help as they do you shouldn't be trading up for a rookie. If they're going to give up a draft pick for a 3 year proven Pro Bowl guy like Cutler, however, I think that makes sense.

Even with guys like Bradford and McCoy (probably) coming out next year, Sanchez would have been better off staying in school. Another year like he had last season and he's a guaranteed top 5 pick, if not in contention for #1 overall, in 2010.

As for Cutler, I would think that the idea of coming into an offense with Calvin Johnson and Kevin Smith would actually be attractive.

 

[ohiobrewtus]

Don't be dissin' Chaz Batch. He was the best QB Detroit had since what, the 1950s?

Batch did well in the couple years that he was a starter for the Lions, but the best and most consistent QB they've had since Bobby Layne was easily Erik Kramer.

 

[Danek]

Speaking of Detroit and first-round junior QB busts, here's perhaps the most useless piece of trivia I've ever seen:

"Andre Ware voiced the role of General Nick Fury in Marvel Comics Ultimate Avengers and Ultimate Avengers II (Rise of the Black Panther)."

Nice that he finally found his niche.

 

[hokster]

The success rate of QB's coming out early is incredibly low.

I think you mean, "The success rate of "QB's coming out is incredibly low."

Of all the positions in football, there's a good reason QB is the most difficult to project to the NFL (actually, there are several), and there's a good reason that number of starts is one of the important indicators to future success. By coming out early, of course, you're missing out on a whole season to refine your understanding of the game and pick up on some collegiate-level defensive nuances, which can then (hopefully) be translated to picking up on some NFL-level defensive nuances, and as if the game weren't hard enough, you're making it that much harder on yourself.

But money, injury, etc.

Even so, most senior QB prospects fail, as well. If juniors are more visible of doing so, it's because most junior QB prospects don't come out unless they're going to be a first or maybe second round pick, and those busts are always visible, senior or junior, whereas you'll get seniors taken later who do better. But I don't think the rate of successional seniors is too much higher than that of successful juniors.

 

[CBBaron]

I think you mean, "The success rate of "QB's coming out is incredibly low."

Of all the positions in football, there's a good reason QB is the most difficult to project to the NFL (actually, there are several), and there's a good reason that number of starts is one of the important indicators to future success. By coming out early, of course, you're missing out on a whole season to refine your understanding of the game and pick up on some collegiate-level defensive nuances, which can then (hopefully) be translated to picking up on some NFL-level defensive nuances, and as if the game weren't hard enough, you're making it that much harder on yourself.

But money, injury, etc.

Even so, most senior QB prospects fail, as well. If juniors are more visible of doing so, it's because most junior QB prospects don't come out unless they're going to be a first or maybe second round pick, and those busts are always visible, senior or junior, whereas you'll get seniors taken later who do better. But I don't think the rate of successional seniors is too much higher than that of successful juniors.

You make sense. Some of the recent quarterbacks that have been very successful in their first year in the NFL are Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco and Ben Rothelisburger. All were 3 or 4 year starters in college. Ofcourse Matt Cassel was a 4 year backup.

I think a bigger factor in the success of rookie quarterbacks is the team they are playing on. Flacco and Rothelisburger started for teams that had good defensive units and effective running attacks. They were given the chance to grow into the job without trying to win every game alone while running for their lives. The failures listed above were all on teams where the new star quarterback was supposed to rescue them. Its a recipe for a short career as a quarterback when in that position.

I think Russell could be a really good quarterback in the NFL. He showed plenty of promise in college and he definitely has the athletic ability. But on a team like the Raiders he may never be able to overcome.

If Stafford is chosen by the Lions I would expect worse. They need OL and defense first, then if those pan out next year look to get a quarterback. A rookie on the current team will not be any kind of upgrade.

Craig

 

[Dude]

Sorry for the delay!

With the 9th pick in the HBT Mock NFL draft, The Green Bay Packers select--Michael Oher, OT, Mississippi.

With Chad Clifton literally on his last legs, and the very real possibility of Mark Tauscher not returning to the team after an ACL tear, the tackle position is suddenly a huge need. Oher fits into the scheme as an immediate starter at RT, and possibly down the line he could move to LT when Clifton can't go anymore. Despite obvious needs on the defensive line, this is a safe pick and is insurance in protecting franchise QB Aaron Rodgers.

 

[ohiobrewtus]

Holy crap that took you a long time.

Sorry for the delay!

With the 9th pick in the HBT Mock NFL draft, The Green Bay Packers select--Michael Oher, OT, Mississippi.

With Chad Clifton literally on his last legs, and the very real possibility of Mark Tauscher not returning to the team after an ACL tear, the tackle position is suddenly a huge need. Oher fits into the scheme as an immediate starter at RT, and possibly down the line he could move to LT when Clifton can't go anymore. Despite obvious needs on the defensive line, this is a safe pick and is insurance in protecting franchise QB Aaron Rodgers.

 

[ohiobrewtus]

neko is now officially on the clock.

 

[CBBaron]

Dude is on the clock. I'm thinking Everette Brown.

Sorry for the delay!

With the 9th pick in the HBT Mock NFL draft, The Green Bay Packers select--Michael Oher, OT, Mississippi.

So whats up with the 29 hour pick? I thought we were limited to 24? jk

Good pick. Lots of good tackles in this draft and thats usually a good way to improve the team.

Craig

 

[neko]

Well, where to begin with this team. They seem to be close to the playoffs, but just need a little bit more.

The Niners take Andre Smith, OT - Alabama
Maybe that will do it.

 

[ohiobrewtus]

BuffaloSabresBrewer is on the clock. I probably won't have a chance to check back in until tomorrow evening, so there may be a bit of a delay in pick notifications.

 

[schweaty]

Lions need to trade Ernie Sims to Denver since they need so much help at LB for Jay Cutler. Then they can draft Aaron Curry @ #1. Sims is one concussion away from being the character LT played in "Any Given Sunday".

 

[BuffaloSabresBrewer]

Wow this is my first post inn a long time. Back to work and lots of extra BS.
The Bills have not had a TE that can catch a pass in years so the Buffalo Bills are going to take Brandon Pettigrew tight end from Oklahoma State.

 

[ohiobrewtus]

RICLARK is now on the clock for the Broncos.

schweaty - no way the Lions include Ernie Sims in a trade package. Not sure where the Any Given Sunday reference comes rom. He hits hard, but he hasn't missed much time at all since he's been in the league and only missed time once because of a concussion.

 

[ohiobrewtus]

RICLARK, check the last PM I sent you before you make your selection please.

 

[the_bird]

If Denver is effectively going to be forced to trade Cutler, do they draft Sanchez here? It's a wasted pick if you can patch things up with The Whiney One, but if it's really too late to salvage things with him you almost NEED to draft a QB. It would absolutely decimate any trade leverage they would have over Cutler, though.

Here's what I'm going to predict. Tampa's #1 pick (#19 overall), plus a conditional 2010 pick (2nd- to- 4th round) for Cutler. Denver drafts Sanchez at #12 and signs a vet stopgap guy (to complete the circle, maybe Garcia?) for 2009. Tampa gets their franchise QB, Denver gets a new face for the franchise, someone who sounds like much less of a primmadonna than Cutler (or Griese was earlier), grabs a 1st rounder in the sweet spot (#19), and gets a little something for 2010.

 

[RICLARK]

With the 12th Selection in the 2009 HBT Mock Draft, The Denver Broncos Select Michael Johnson, DE, Georgia Tech

 

[ohiobrewtus]

RICLARK and I had a deal ready, but after doing a bunch of reading today I really think that the Broncos and Cutler are going to patch things up because in the end, Cutler will realize that the Broncos don't *have* to trade him. He under contract and if he doesn't play out his contract for them, he won't play at all.

There's a reason that so many teams are interested in trading for him and it's because he's a known quantity. I don't believe that a rookie HC wants to strap his first coupel of seasons on to the back of someone like Sanchez.

Having said that, here's the deal that we almost did:

Detroit would have gotten QB Jay Cutler and TE Tony Scheffler.

Denver would have gotten the Lions #20 pick, their 2nd 6th round pick (#179 overall), and a conditional pick in 2010 that would have started at a 5th rounder and could have ended up as high as a 2nd rounder.

Again, I believe that somehow the Broncos will most likely make things right and Cutler will stay in Denver, so I felt that in an effort to keep this as realistic as possible we didn't do the deal.

http://www.mlive.com/lions/index.ssf/2009/03/the_buzz_among_insiders_is_tha.html

 

[ohiobrewtus]

With the 13th pick the Redskins select Tyson Jackson, DE - LSU.

I think that Washington would really like to take an OT here, but with the top 4 off of the board already they take one of the fastest rising prospects of the offseason in Tyson Jackson. Some pundits are predicting that Jackson may even go as high as #9 to Green Bay.

cuinrearview is now on the clock.

I'm thinking Jenkins for the Saints.

 

[RICLARK]

For some reason I didn't realize I was picking for the falcons.....Anyone know what there needs are? I know they lost Brooking.

 

[Danek]

For some reason I didn't realize I was picking for the falcons.....Anyone know what there needs are? I know they lost Brooking.

In the mocks I've seen, people have them pretty consistently picking OLB/DEs - Larry English, Tyson Jackson, Aaron Maybin, Clay Matthews.

 

[RICLARK]

Does anyone think that Josh Freeman is a 1st rounder?? I am starting to see him go higher and higher he must of had a hell of a pro day.

 

[ohiobrewtus]

I will be very surprised if Freeman doesn't go somewhere in the 1st round.

 

[the_bird]

If Freeman's the third-best QB in the draft, I figure the J-E-T-S grab Sanchez, then you figure Tampa Bay, Detroit, and Minnessota all have to at least consider him. Sounds like it would be a reach for him to go in the 19 - 23 range, but you never know; none of those teams has a QB worth a damn between them.

 

[Danek]

Yeah, it's not always a case of whether a specific player gives value for a particular pick, but whether fixing a positional weakness would give value for it. If Freeman's the best QB available when the Jets are up, then although there are probably going to be better players than him available, they'd need to consider whether grabbing a great pass-rusher or OT would really be the smartest move when it means they're going to suck at QB all season long. Hypothetically, if they really think it's a reach to take Freeman at 17, then they could try to finesse it by dropping down a few spots. But if they end up missing out on him, it looks like being a real drop-off to the fourth-best QB in this draft - in which case they might as well wait until next year to get their franchise QB.