Germey
Well-Known Member
More news on our uber intelligent politicians who know better for us.
It doesn't take a Ph.D in economics to know that both figures can't be right.
With all due respect, I think it takes several pH D's to even try to estimate it. The straight price of a finished product (barrels bought from the Saudi's) does not equal a barrel produced domestically. There will be billions of dollars invested to get those barrels out of the ground and delivered, so, no, the cost won't be the same. The pertinent question (at least at first) would be "when is the break even for the investment". At that point, the prices might start coming down. Would those oil reserve's at full capacity production, last long enough to reach that break even point? (I make no claim to know an answer).
Then there is the international politics part of this. Suppose we did drill Californina waters and ANWR. Here is what the Saudis would do. They would wait for a critical point in the investment cycle and drop the price of oil so that their "competition" would get clobbered. As I read in a recent Forbes magazine, the Saudis love the instability. Their ideal pricing per barrel looks like
$100, $100, $100, $100, $10, $100...
As long as we keep playing the petroleum game, we are at massive disadvantage. These are the considerations that Presidents are making, not so much "save the Caribou" as the press spins it. The oil companies don't want to drill these areas to save the country, they want to go in and have the government (our money) shield them from that risk, basically guaranteeing them profit in light of the above scenario.
I wonder if, instead of going to war, we said "lets spend a few trillion dollars on technology development and subsidies to completely change our energy options" what would have happened. Probably would have been worse for the mid east than a month of nuclear carpet bombing. Only about as ludicrous as putting a man on the moon at the time.
Oh well.