That's just it. I don't think there will ever be a break even period. Not when you obsess over trying to make store quality beer. Perhaps if I was content with just cream ale with dry yeast in a plastic bucket. But I really like high OG with half a pound of hops type beers.
The used chest freezer I bought already died. The used kegs I bought need expensive replacement parts to seal good. One of my CO2 tanks is already due for hydro testing. PBW costs an arm and leg. My wife left the frozen yeast farm out in the garage for a week to make room for birthday party ice cream (not sure, but it could be a loss). The bunch of hops roots i bought got planted in a bad spot and died( heavy winds also seem to rip the vine in half). Ph probe needs expensive calibration liquids. Have like 5 lbs of hops pellets and 3 sacks of imported grain that are getting too stale to really use up (If the mice and bugs haven't done them in). There are equipment losses like broken $50 carboys, hydrometers, copper wort chiller left to freeze in garage over winter. There are buckets that fall and spill at bottling time, batches that need dumping because of failed yeast, infection, or poor experimenting. Co2/0 tank leaks that aren't detected until the tank is empty. Bottle explosions that take out the whole case. Friends who think you should be able to supply large amounts simply because the beer is homemade. End up buying fancy glassware to enjoy your beer in. Fancy must-have gadgets that you end up never using. Books, software, apps, memberships get bought to further the knowledge because for some reason there is more to brewing a beer than first meets the eye.
While I am sure after the first year things go smoother, there sure seems to be a lot of hidden costs.