40 years to get to LESS than 8% of the existing market is NOT:
I believe this is exactly the (missed) point of this thread: micro's are turning on each other at increasing rates because as they grow they are starting to realize they are fighting for the same market share no matter WHERE they are in the country.
It's fun and games to play nice when they sell everything they can make. Then one day they upgrade and get cut throat when they can't max out sales anymore, and it all turns to suing each other and all the tactics emotional homebrewers want to believe are for "A-Hole" Macro's only.
This is interesting, because it was a similar situation to what led us to this point in brewing history. There were a lot of local breweries, all selling to a select group. Some of these wanted to expand and go national. At that time buying them out was easier than suing, so I wonder if we will ever see that side again outside of AB InBev. lagunitas just built a brewery in Chicago. Locally I see a lot more Revolition beers on tap than I do Lagunitas. Eventually something is going to have to give to gain market share here. Does anyone think these medium sized independent breweries will start looking to buy out locals?
On the other hand, to say there is no growth potential outside of the existing beer market, really isn't true. Wine pulled it off. Brewers just need to find a way to get those people who don't drink beer. There are a lot of those people out there. I know a lot of wine drinkers who wouldn't touch the stuff 10 years ago. Most of them were stolen from the beer market. May only be a select amount of space on beer shelves, but what if they started looking to the wine shelves? Most grocery stores have a lot more space for wine then they do for beer, at least in my area.
The craft industry as a whole almost needs to get a PR firm to start working for them to attract drinkers who don't drink beer. Over all, beer still seems like a working man/sports watcher's drink. I know there are a lot of women who drink craft beer, but I'd still say, over all the female market for beer is the one I'd be going after. Even at brewpubs I go to, sure most of the guys have a beer, but I still see at least half the women either drinking wine, mixed drink or a soft drink.
There is huge potential outside of the existing beer market, they just need to find a direction to tap into it without alienating the classic beer drinking group.
Hell as someone said above, get pop stars to start singing or rapping about drinking an IPA.
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