basically saying that the market is going to be ex BMC drinkers not other craft beer.
That will continue for awhile, but it won't last forever. Without drawing some curves on a graph it's tough to describe, but I'll try.
Right now there is a huge interest in craft beer, but that demand is going to level off. Basically, craft is never going to pull 100% of the market away from BMC. BMC markets too heavily, and it's too much cheaper than craft beer. Just like small boutique pizza places will never steal 100% of the market from Pizza Hut. It's
never going to happen.
So what is happening? The type of people that
would be interested in drinking craft beer are discovering craft beer. This is driving demand. This will continue for awhile until the majority of the people that would be interested in craft beer already are. Now you're left with two groups, your BMC crowd, and your craft crowd. Craft may slowly steal more market from BMC, but at a fraction of the rate they are today.
To sum that up. Demand for craft will continue to rise. Heavily in the short term, but then very slowly a few years down the line. That line on a chart will continue to be pointed up, but it will be much flatter than it is today.
Now let's look at the second potion: Supply. As demand is sky high right now, there are tons of breweries flooding the market. As these breweries are entering the market, demand has continued to rise, and rise fast. That won't last though. Once demand slows down, supply will outpace demand. Good breweries will make it, mediocre ones will fail.
Stealing market from BMC isn't a bottomless grab bag. Eventually craft will steal all the market it can. BMC isn't going anywhere, no matter how much people want it to. Local breweries are going to need to start seeing themselves as competitors here soon.