So, the first competitive matches for MLS teams are coming up in CCL and the start of the season isn't too far off, so I'm tossing out some speculation on how the MLS teams will do this year. My predictions are probably way off, and it's possible teams will add more players or trade away others before the official start on March 6th, but hey it's fun to speculate. I'll go in reverse order of where they ended in their respective divisions.
The East
Chicago Fire
Chicago's offseason moves are a mixed bag. Their move to trade Harrison to NYCFC for a pile of money and the 4th round pick was good, and the Fire picked up lots of players in the draft. On the other hand, the Sounders probably probably got the better deal to pick up Joevin Jones in exchange for their near end of the first round pick. Trading Harry Shipp to Montreal is a real head scratcher too. But let's be real, for the last few years the Fire's problem has not been an issue with talent, but coaching. Frank Klopas was followed by the slightly worse Frank Yallop, architects of some of the worst football play in MLS across multiple teams. Veljko Paunovic, their new coach is talking the right talk, but can he walk the walk? MLS history is littered with failed foreign coaches. I'm honestly not sure what to expect here, but I don't think the Fire will be a major eastern power, they could return to the playoffs.
Philadelphia Union
Every time I think the Union have things figured out, they screw it up. The Union sent Maidana to Houston for a ham sandwich and replaced him with...Chris Pontius from DC United. There's some other players added of course and I fully expect a better back line, but now offense looks to be a problem. It's possible their young new talent will step up, but I think this is going to be another lost season for fans and that could be a real problem; already attendance is way down at Union games.
New York City FC
NYCFC fired one of the best coaches in America in their first season after (allegedly) neutering his ability to field the best formation possible even if that meant benching big stars. NYCFC picked up some new young talent in the draft and they have a new coach from parent club Manchester City with a lot of hype, but unless Patrick Viera is empowered to bench players when he wants even if they have names like Lampard, Villa or Pirlo, this won't be a great season. Realistically, the old men have had a long offseason to rejuvenate and train together, so I expect NYCFC to start strong, but I think they'll fade out during the second half of the season.
Orlando City SC
Orlando City just barely missed the playoffs and they've had a relatively quiet offseason compared to many teams, but they have built what I think is a better roster. With some solid picks from the SuperDraft and the acquisition of CDM Antonio Nocerino Orlando has largely solved their weak midfield problems. As long as Kaka can keep doing his thing without injury and Cyle Larin doesn't have a sophomore slump I think Orlando City should make the playoffs this year and if they follow my advice and switch to a 4-3-3 they might be a real threat with Kaka, Rochez and Larin up top.
Toronto FC
Last year Toronto got into the playoffs for the first time, largely because Sebastian Giovinco put the team on his back and carried them in one of the best MVP displays in MLS history. Toronto didn't get any further than the first round, but it's encouraging for a team that has largely languished in the east despite big bucks backing it. Giovinco shouldn't need to walk on water this year to get Toronto into the playoffs though, Toronto has largely fixed their defensive issues from last year and gotten rid of human red card machine Jackson, I expect Toronto to be a major power in the east this year, anything less should be viewed as a failure.
New England Revolution
Last season saw the New England Revolution go from dominant eastern force to barely squeaking into the playoffs, their season ended in an inglorious exit that included Jermaine Jones getting a 6 game suspension for getting physical with referee Mark Geiger. New England added precious little in terms of extra personnel and with Jones apparently done with MLS it's hard to see how New England can continue to compete in the increasingly loaded up eastern conference. Unless Lee Nguyen has another MVP-caliber season like he did in 2014 or or Agudelo and Fagundez figure out how to score on a regular basis I don't expect to see the Revolution in the playoffs. Someone should tell Bob Kraft that his other football team sucks and that he needs to spend some money so they don't anymore.
DC United
The east's oldest beast looked weak, soft and slow when they exited the 2015 MLS playoffs to their rivals NYRB without scoring a single goal in their two game series. With Bill Hamid out for a long stretch, DC United could be in some real trouble at the start of the season. That said, United did pick up some solid mid-tier MLS talent, probably the most important being former Sounders winger Lamar Neagle and offensive creator Marcelo Savras. Savras did great things with LA, but languished in a defensive schema in Colorado. DC have mostly played defensively in the past, but if they can use these additions to get more offensive and creative they will do very well. With all of that said, DC is still trying to field a team on a budget, so they are unlikely to set the east on fire, I expect DC to make the playoffs though I don't expect a deep run.
Montreal Impact
The Impact had probably the quietest offseason of all the MLS clubs, mostly it simply involved declining or waiving options on veteran players. Of course, the Impact probably feel they have a good thing going so why tinker with it? Drogba and Nacho Piatti formed a pretty solid partnership in the second half of the season and they were good defensively all year. With the addition of Harry Shipp Montreal has one of the better offenses in the East, as long as Drogba keeps Drogbaing and Nacho Piatti keeps doing his thing, Montreal will be in the playoffs and be poised to make a deep run.
Columbus Crew
The Crew got all the way to the MLS Final, but fell just short in no small part due to a weak defense. The Crew have made the effort this offseason to load up on defenders to correct that one, glaring flaw. If Greg Berhalter can keep the offense in tip-top shape and have a solid defense I'd say the Crew will be the scariest team in the east. Of course, then again, when you get to the MLS Cup everyone takes notice...and takes better notes, it's possible the Crew could find teams more prepared for their swarming, high energy offense; the bee hive might be less effective if everyone is wearing a bee suit.
New York Red Bulls
The new, less flashy style of the Red Bulls' spending continued this offseason, with the exception of Gideon Baah every player the Red Bulls signed was a homegrown player. The additions are almost entirely defensive, which should make their already stingy defense even stingier. I think the Red Bulls could use a creative player besides Sacha Klejstan and maybe another excellent striker besides BWP, but make no mistake, this roster is as good as last year's roster, and that probably means another trip to the playoffs.
I'll toss up the West's breakdown next week.