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ChshreCat

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I have the Packer's defense one one of my fantasy teams. I only needed 46 points from them tonight to win. Tell them to get it going.
 

ChshreCat

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lol, I hate to tattle on my own team, but jocks in general make for some good laughs when they try to talk... this is Richard Sherman after the game today...

"People, they don't look at the film. They don't analyze anything. That's why these analysts and commentators need to shut their mouth."

lol
 

Sir Humpsalot

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A buddy at work and I got to talkin about how cool it would be if you could create a system to bet on football and win with some regularity. That got me to thinking about my previous attempts to "beat the house".. none of which were decisive enough to actually get me to go forward (my best system, analyzed back 4 years, only came to 67% win-rate... and honestly, I thought you could get wiped out in a bad year with that system.. it was dicey). Nevertheless, my job is boring and gives me ample time to sit and doodle and ponder. I came up with a couple interesting ideas for systems, and then indulged my spreadsheet-loving OCD side for a few evenings. Wanna know the result?

I am 1 win and 12 losses against the spread this week. Ha! I misinterpreted my data and flipped the results! Oops....

Still, my buddy is getting excited. I'm more cautious. This has to be a fluke. Nevertheless, I'll be running through the same numbers next week, just for kicks. We aren't betting... just seeing if a workable system can get much above 70% accuracy.

The one game I picked correct? The one which I would have lost if I had done my system right? New England vs Seattle.

And sure, I'll post my selections for next week.. just for kicks. I'll probably put them up wednesday night, but since it's math/calculation based, I don't particularly care if I post them on friday. My system is more important than proving it to people... so it depends on how busy I get with my Tuesday through thursday girlfriend. I'm not saying I have a winning system... I don't know enough yet. And I haven't even taken injuries into account in the system yet (which has driven my football-obsessed buddy insane). But it's an auspicious beginning to my mega spreadsheet from hell indulgence!

Yes, I was once a tax attorney who dremt of being an accountant. LOL
 

Punity

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ChshreCat said:
lol, I hate to tattle on my own team, but jocks in general make for some good laughs when they try to talk... this is Richard Sherman after the game today...

"People, they don't look at the film. They don't analyze anything. That's why these analysts and commentators need to shut their mouth."

lol
Did you see Sherman's tweet he put out after the game.
 

Punity

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this was used by Sherman after the game
Brady told him and Earl thomas to find him after the game when they win so he did.

sherman.jpg
 

the_bird

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A buddy at work and I got to talkin about how cool it would be if you could create a system to bet on football and win with some regularity. That got me to thinking about my previous attempts to "beat the house".. none of which were decisive enough to actually get me to go forward (my best system, analyzed back 4 years, only came to 67% win-rate... and honestly, I thought you could get wiped out in a bad year with that system.. it was dicey). Nevertheless, my job is boring and gives me ample time to sit and doodle and ponder. I came up with a couple interesting ideas for systems, and then indulged my spreadsheet-loving OCD side for a few evenings. Wanna know the result?

I am 1 win and 12 losses against the spread this week. Ha! I misinterpreted my data and flipped the results! Oops....

Still, my buddy is getting excited. I'm more cautious. This has to be a fluke. Nevertheless, I'll be running through the same numbers next week, just for kicks. We aren't betting... just seeing if a workable system can get much above 70% accuracy.

The one game I picked correct? The one which I would have lost if I had done my system right? New England vs Seattle.

And sure, I'll post my selections for next week.. just for kicks. I'll probably put them up wednesday night, but since it's math/calculation based, I don't particularly care if I post them on friday. My system is more important than proving it to people... so it depends on how busy I get with my Tuesday through thursday girlfriend. I'm not saying I have a winning system... I don't know enough yet. And I haven't even taken injuries into account in the system yet (which has driven my football-obsessed buddy insane). But it's an auspicious beginning to my mega spreadsheet from hell indulgence!

Yes, I was once a tax attorney who dremt of being an accountant. LOL
If your system can consistently go 1 for 13, you'll make millions - as long as you remember to bet against it! Maybe that's why nobody's gotten a good system down yet - they're trying to pick the winners, when you've had the genius move of let's pick the losers!
 

Punity

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the_bird said:
If your system can consistently go 1 for 13, you'll make millions - as long as you remember to bet against it! Maybe that's why nobody's gotten a good system down yet - they're trying to pick the winners, when you've had the genius move of let's pick the losers!
It's so crazy it just might work.
 

Sir Humpsalot

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If your system can consistently go 1 for 13, you'll make millions - as long as you remember to bet against it! Maybe that's why nobody's gotten a good system down yet - they're trying to pick the winners, when you've had the genius move of let's pick the losers!
Haha pretty much! Actually, I just mixed up my pluses and minuses. Pluses are overrateds, not outperformers. Minuses are underrateds, not busts.. as I mistakenly was thinking as I threw my predictions together. The math is consistent though.

Now, to be honest, I haven't factored home field advantage, I haven't even looked at injuries. The system needs refining and I am sure I won't go 13-1 (or 1-13) next week. But I do think it's a good basis for a system. I'll be thrilled if I go 8 and 6 next week. I'm not even far enough along to think about confidence ratings, as clearly not every game is as certain as the next.
 
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Welp... whatta ya gonna do?

The Pats hung 475 yards on a WAY overhyped Seattle D yet, since they have the worst freakin' secondary in the history of the NFL, they lost to Russell freakin' Wilson. The guy threw about 8 Hail Mary's and completed every one of them. Hey... Seattle won. Period.

There was no way the Packers were really as bad as thier record and no way the Texans were as good as thiers... I mentioned to a buddy yesterday that I haven't bet a football game in about 8 years and I think I've bet a total of three games my entire life but I was willing to put my house on the Packers last night.


San Fran? Exposed


Baltimore... It finally happened... Ray Lewis broke a hip. It was just a matter of time. As a Pats fan, that sucks 'cause now they're replace him on the field and there is no way it won't be an upgrade.

Meh... hopefully the Pats can pull it together and just make the effin' playoffs at this point. They show flashes of brilliance and then flashes of just awful. Brady looked like a surgeon on some plays yesterday and then horrifically missed WRs in 4 or 5 passes out 7.

I got 10-1 odds the Hawk fans still have their goggles on though. That's going to be a four-day "session" after yesterday.
 

Punity

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6pts in the second half yea Brady and co really carved up the d. 58 freaking pass attempts this isn't college.

The series you guys had right before our last possession for the td was horribly called.
 
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LOL!! "Well.... Brady only threw for nine yards between 6 minutes left in the third and 2 and a half minutes left in the third"!! HAHA!!

They hung 475 yards on them. "Beastmode" ran for a freakin' whopping 41 yards. OVER-HYPED.

Hey.. Seattle won... deserved to win. All the Pats needed was a FG in the 4th to put the game out of reach and they couldn't do it. All they needed to do was knock down one of the 8 Hail Marys... couldn't do it.
 

HoppyDaze

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LOL!! "Well.... Brady only threw for nine yards between 6 minutes left in the third and 2 and a half minutes left in the third"!! HAHA!!

They hung 475 yards on them. "Beastmode" ran for a freakin' whopping 41 yards. OVER-HYPED.

Hey.. Seattle won... deserved to win. All the Pats needed was a FG in the 4th to put the game out of reach and they couldn't do it. All they needed to do was knock down one of the 8 Hail Marys... couldn't do it.
You are just the worst...Never willing to give credit where it's due. Overhyped defense and overhyped Lynch such nonsense. Defense gave up yards (the one stat you seem to love) but not many points and made the big stops. Thats what TOP defenses do. As far as Lynch, he only got the rock 15 times because ROY candidate Russell Wilson was carving up your secondary.

Stats (the only ones that count Cape):

Final Score:
Seattle 24
NE 23

Seattle 4-2 Russell Willson 293 yrds 3TD and 0 INT
New England 3-3 Tom Brady 395 2TD 2 INT
 
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Couple defensive injuries for the Crows. Webb's done for the year, Lewis may be (which Adam Schecter says may be the end). Hope our dinosaur middle backer doesn't get hurt.

Oh, and WTF is Vilma trying to prove? Dude needs to be a big boy about this and take the inevitable. #norespectforthegame
 

Punity

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NordeastBrewer77 said:
Couple defensive injuries for the Crows. Webb's done for the year, Lewis may be (which Adam Schecter says may be the end). Hope our dinosaur middle backer doesn't get hurt.

Oh, and WTF is Vilma trying to prove? Dude needs to be a big boy about this and take the inevitable. #norespectforthegame
That sucks for the birds. Wow one game could change the whole look of their D.
 
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You are just the worst...Never willing to give credit where it's due.
you even reposted it when you quoted me... "Hey.. Seattle won... deserved to win". Did you miss that?? Are your goggles a little dirty still and you're having trouble seeing??

Overhyped defense and overhyped Lynch such nonsense. Defense gave up yards (the one stat you seem to love) but not many points and made the big stops. Thats what TOP defenses do. As far as Lynch, he only got the rock 15 times because ROY candidate Russell Wilson was carving up your secondary.
BWAAAAAAA AHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Lynch got 41 yards because the Pats tried to stop him and figured they would let one of the worst ranked QBs in the league try to beat them.... and that's exactly what ended up happening. He pulled a few obnixiously long throws out of his azz and, hey... credit to him... he completed them and they ended up winning.

"ROY candidate"?!?! AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!

Lynch? Shut down and was a total non-factor... and the Pats moved the ball almost at will against that "awesome" D. We'll see where the two teams end up in the standings and the rankings when the season is over.


Pfft... ROY candidate... that's fckin' hilarious.
 

dataz722

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So wait, the AFC East teams are all 3-3? First place patriots at .500? Hahahaha.
1st place patriots? Don't you mean Jets? ;)

:D

Dunno, didn't watch. SC had a bit about Webb and Lewis. If Ngata is hurt too, ouch.
Good win last night man, I don't think anyone outside Seattle (and Terry Bradshaw) saw that coming.
Yeah, they are saying sprained MCL for ngata. That D is ****ed. Nothing offical about Ray yet, but the ACL for webb was confirmed. I feel bad for the guy. Tore the other one his rookie year and finally made his way back to form last year to only do it again.
 
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Yeah, they are saying sprained MCL for ngata. That D is ****ed. Nothing offical about Ray yet, but the ACL for webb was confirmed. I feel bad for the guy. Tore the other one his rookie year and finally made his way back to form last year to only do it again.
Yeah, watching SC at lunch now. Ngata did limp off, and Lewis has an MRI today. Sucks for Webb, I thought I remember his knee gong before, and this is not the same one? Ouch. And yeah, that D is screwed, 'specially if Lewis' injury keeps him out long.
 
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Joking aside, if he really did tear a tri.... ya figured that's a career Dataz? Being serious and not busting your chops. I am assuming he would be done for the season and do you think he comes back next year?
That seems to be the general consensus. Would they bring him back after a season ender? Honestly, it'd be sad. I think the man deserves a much better last game than yesterday. I'd like to see him play again.
 

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Now, I know you don't mean that....


Joking aside, if he really did tear a tri.... ya figured that's a career Dataz? Being serious and not busting your chops. I am assuming he would be done for the season and do you think he comes back next year?
I would assume it would be, but with him, who the hell knows. It would kill him to go out like that on an injury, but he has also said that he wouldn't be one of those guys that hangs around way too long and would hang it up when it was time. If I had to bet, I would say he comes back next year. Don't know if that would be the right choice or not though.
 
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I would assume it would be, but with him, who the hell knows. It would kill him to go out like that on an injury, but he has also said that he wouldn't be one of those guys that hangs around way too long and would hang it up when it was time. If I had to bet, I would say he comes back next year. Don't know if that would be the right choice or not though.
I joke about him constantly but this Cowboys game.... it just seemed like it was a hint. The Cowboys game plan was basically, "Let's run right up the middle... and if we can run AT Ray... even better". And it was working.

The guy is obviously going into the HOF but he ain't the same Ray Lewis he was when he shot that guy.
 

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I joke about him constantly but this Cowboys game.... it just seemed like it was a hint. The Cowboys game plan was basically, "Let's run right up the middle... and if we can run AT Ray... even better". And it was working.

The guy is obviously going into the HOF but he ain't the same Ray Lewis he was when he shot that guy.
Yeah, he lost all that weight so his pass coverage could be more than a bear hug this year. And it helped. He is a ton quicker, but he isn't able to get off blocks like he used to. It didn't hurt them that they had him double teamed most of the time too.

He proved he can still knock the **** out of someone, a few times this year already.
 

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