Correct, it needs to "learn" the inertia in the system in the beginning.
Correct. as a matter of fact, you do not need a Beer temp probe when using Fridge Constant.
We'll get there.
When I've had this issue it's been bad connections to the board from the sensors.
I had the problem again with another USB cable so its something else. Could it be that the cable of the temperature sensor is too long? It was 3 meters but I've cut it to 2,5m.