These pics show what I tested ....
I did not have a starting pic of the temp and level... but the temp of the starting water was 57F and right at 15 gallons on the dip tube/in pot.
To answer the other poster ...The dip tube was calibrated with room temp water...gallon by gallon with a jug of water that measured exactly 8.3X pounds. ..actually it was probably closer to the 57 I used today...tap water/ground water is still fairly cold in MO now. Is the difference of 57 degree water vs 70 degree water X 15 negligible? ... probably not ? But lets proceed.
The current temp after this pot sitting all night is 92 F and the water contracted back to the almost original size.
I lost approximately 1.25 gallons of water due to evaporation due to the hour of heating the water to get from 57 to boiling. Once I got to boiling I turned off the system. It was pretty dry here in MO yesterday ... I saw 27% on my humidity meter once when I looked.
I see AJ has stated more than once about evaporation losses - up to 10% per hour.
https://www.homebrewtalk.com/forum/threads/wort-shrinkage.444052/#post-5695888
AJ says... 15 x . 1 = 1.5 gallons ... I lost 1.25 overall as my evap rate was less than 10% it seems.
but ...
if thermal expansion is 4% over 70F... then 14.75, the amount i had at the end of the short boil 14.75 x .04 = .59 ... so I should have 14.15 in the kettle.. not 13.75... I can only assume the evaporation continued even after the heat was stopped.
I am confident my system did not leak.. but I will check it again today and stat this over again.
I still have not solved the mystery as to why my dip tube level go down after my wort was chilled.
Any holes in these theories? thanks for you help - haeffnkr
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