If we were talking about a single success story, I'd completely agree with you. Maybe even a dozen isolated situations. But we aren't. We're talking about SIGNIFICANTLY greater quantities of success stories. How many yeast strains does White labs sell? Maybe a hundred? Then there are all the strains in their yeast vault that they maintain, but don't sell, or sell to private clients and breweries but not the general public. How many are there, maybe two hundred more? Probably more, but still. So that's three hundred individual success stories. That's three hundred strains of yeast that likely weren't "created" after 1880. That doesn't count the several thousand cases where White labs received a strain that survived several thousand years of selection, but the yeast just produced off flavors and wasn't suitable to maintain. The yeast collected off the islands of Estonia is a perfect example. That also doesn't count the several thousand yeast strains
not maintained by White labs, or their competitors. But lets ignore all that for a second. Lets say in the history of man-kind we have 300 successful "survivors."
What are the odds of having one survivor? Lets say, at home and under somewhat reasonable sanitary conditions (but not laboratory conditions), I can reuse a yeast 6 times before something goes wrong (either infection, mutation, lazy yeast, whatever). That's roughly a 15% chance that each batch will have something go wrong. Or put another way, an 85% chance that I can successfully reuse a yeast from one batch to another. Now lets also assume I brew once a month, with the same yeast strain. After two years (24 batches) there is a 2% chance my yeast is still healthy. After 315 brews, there is a 0.00000000000000000000001% chance my yeast is still healthy. That's one in ten sextillion odds. 315 brews represents 26 years of brewing, at one brew per month.
Now I can point to Weihenstephan and say they produced beer for a thousand years. Lets assume that is our outlier. But how many breweries, in the past 300 years, operated consistently for more than 26 years? Maybe a thousand? I'd wager it's SIGNIFICANTLY more than that, considering the number of yeast strains we have, the fact that these yeast strains were developed all around the world, independently, in households and breweries alike. But let's say it is a thousand.
Each one of those thousand situations had a one in ten sextillion odds of success over any one 26 year time period. The odds
each could do it over a 26 year time period? Then the odds that
each could do it
repeatedly over a 300 year time period? Well frankly we're getting beyond my ability to calculate odds, it's so incredibly small.
But we aren't talking about a 26 year time period. We're talking about a few hundred, or a few thousand year time period. But lets just look at that 26 year time period. Each brewery, each house, each community had a one in ten sextillion odds of success, but each one overcame the odds. Except they did that without pasturization, without sanitation, without having a clue what yeast was, and while (in many situations) tossing literal **** into beer (although realistically speaking those probably didn't make the cut). That 85% chance of success is an unreasonably high estimate. But still. All of these breweries succeeded, and yet I can't make it past 6 months of continuous brews without things going bad. How is that possible?
Now you look at the 1,000 breweries I claim as successful, and say there are countless others that were not successful. But if it is one in ten sextillion odds of success, and we have 1,000 cases of success, you should have somewhere around a hundred sextillion (at the very least) cases of failure. That amounts to roughly one trillion failed attempts for every single man, woman and child on the face of the earth today (or one trillion times ten billion) in each 26 year time period of human history. One trillion failed attempts in a 26 year time period accounts for one thousand two hundred failed brews per person alive today PER SECOND.
So what does that mean? History of human (and yeast) evolution tells me the odds of actual success aren't 85%. It should be something much higher. Maybe 99%. Maybe more. But whatever the odds are, I should be able to go longer than 6, longer than 10, longer than 100 brews before something goes wrong.
I wouldn't consider that survivorship bias.