PPR Fantasy Football

[betarhoalphadelta]

You should sit Mahomes so that he goes off. And I'm totally NOT saying that because I have Mahomes here

But seriously Tampa's defense isn't all that great. Heck, Cousins torched them twice. I had them in the 20-team and just managed to trade them away for the Bears. One of the problems with Tampa's defense right now, quite frankly, is their offense. With Godwin lost for the season and Evans out for a few more weeks, they may not be able to stay on the field. Giving Mahomes plenty of opportunity to amass stats.

That said, Dallas sucks too, so I can see why you'd be torn on this one. I'd be watching for status on Micah Parsons and Trevon Diggs. If Parsons is actually back on the field, I'd consider it a game-changer for that Dallas defense. I doubt Trevon Diggs' injury keeps him out of the game, but it's something to monitor. If he and Parsons are both out, Cousins is an EASY start. If Diggs plays but Parsons does not, I'd put the Dallas defense roughly on par with Tampa's.

 

[Chorgey]

So this week's question... For those of you playing in multiple leagues, how are you doing elsewhere? Do you have any start/sit decisions you want feedback on?

My question for a start sit is this: Geno Smith vs Matthew Stafford.

That's a very tough call between the two. For me, it's a 50/50 shot.
I give a slight edge to Geno Smith

 

[Chorgey]

@betarhoalphadelta given the information and they are playing each other I would go with the home team (Seattle) assuming DK is playing.

With that I have a QB issue in that league of who to start. Mahomes or Cousins I feel like if I sit Mahomes he will go off but if I keep benching Cousins, Mahomes will continue to not have great numbers as my starter.

This is another close one to figure out. I give a slight edge to Cousins.
It looks like Micah Parsons may be out and you'll want to monitor the practice reports on Trevon Diggs.

 

[pshankstar]

I decided last night I would dress up and hand out candy. This is what I went with.

 

[pshankstar]

My streak continues!
I’m at a loss of words.

 

[betarhoalphadelta]

My streak continues!
I’m at a loss of words.

It's impressive. I recall my first year in this league there was a miscommunication with two teams that we thought were in for the year, and it turns out they weren't. Their teams autodrafted and were unmanaged all year. And even THEY each lucked into a few wins.

Teams I don't want to face (not necessarily in order--not going that deep):

• Bar Flies - Chorgey: There's just so much damn upside on this roster. Breece is a beast. Derrick Henry in Baltimore with Lamar Jackson taking a lot of defensive attention might return to his old form. Jalen Hurts, Kincaid at TE, and the 'Boys DST. All solid. A lot of potential at WR--I think JSN will excel in his second year with a new OC, Rice might be Mahomes favorite non-TE passcatcher, and Mike Williams could be a big target for Aaron Rodgers throwing deep. Risks: If the WRs bust more than boom, it'll pull down the balance. And at RB, you have Jerome Ford who may be relegated to backup once Chubb is back, Allgeier is a backup, and Derrick Henry is old for an RB. I think Henry's body is more durable than most who face the RB age cliff, but maybe this is the year that Derrick Henry ceases to be Derrick Henry.
• Bones are their Money: Holy WRs, Batman! Garrett Wilson and Puka Nacua are already a great start. But adding in Jaylen Waddle as part of that crazy Miami offense, Zay Flowers who along with Andrews is a favorite target of Lamar, and then you have guys like Josh Palmer who was a steal late in the draft as a proven contributor for Herbert, and Christian Watson because SOMEONE is going to have to catch the ball in GB. Ok, so he loaded up on WR. Then how did he get Josh Jacobs and Alvin Kamara? And Tony Pollard who is ostensibly going to be the starter in Ten, and a flier of a pick in Dobbins who we know will be in an offense that can run the ball. And Charbonnet who is one Walker injury away from being a bellcow. Then he managed to wait on QB and pick up Dak in the 8th. Dak is in a virtual tie for 3rd place in number of completions projected this year, and at 0.5 ppc, that's going to help--and his top WR just got PAID. Risks: Took a flier on a rookie TE which could be boom or bust. And that RB corps could be great--or could be terrible. AK is in decline on a bad team, JK is injury prone, Pollard could get passed by Spears (also potentially on a bad team), Charbonnet is a CLEAR #2 who won't have standalone value minus a Walker injury. Josh Jacobs is the only one I really trust there.

Honorable mention would be Big Gulps. Really solid at QB, TE, and WR. Questionable at RB though. I'd have skipped Tua and Freiermuth and tried to grab some lotto ticket RBs, or would have skipped Lamar in the 4th for a proven RB and hoped to get a QB later--I think Tua is going to be a great one but you can only start one.

Hmm. These two teams (Bones now being named Birds of War of course) are atop the "Points Scored" standings through 9 weeks. One is 8-1 and the other ran into some bad luck in matchups to only be 5-4, but I guess I called it lol.

 

[betarhoalphadelta]

9 weeks in!

I think the playoff odds are starting to shape up, and teams probably know where they are and/or what they need to do. That said, even with Bar Flies sitting atop the league with an 8-1 record, there are no "Locks" for the playoffs. Note that I define "Lock" in the strictest possible sense--the team loses out and yet is still mathematically impossible to not be in the playoffs.

Why is this the case? Because Bar Flies is sitting at 8 wins, and there are 11 of 12 teams in the league that are mathematically capable of reaching 8 wins. Which means that it's POSSIBLE that if Bar Flies were to lose out and finish 8-6, enough teams below could reach 8-6 that an 8-6 team is excluded from the playoffs due to a tiebreaker.

Now, we have three teams sitting on 3-6 records. Do I expect them all to get to 8 wins? No. But--in the next 5 weeks those teams don't play each other at all, so literally all three of them mathematically can go 5-0 from here on out to get to 8-6.

All that said... I think 8 wins will be a playoff team. I am expecting that if we have a tiebreaker procedure for the final playoff spot(s) it'll be at 7-7. Teams 4 through 8 in the standings are all within one game of .500, and teams 9 through 11 would need to go 4-1 to reach 7-7, but that's a possibility. I think that's where our logjam is likely to end up.

Game Of The Week: It has to be Beer is my Patronus (6-3) vs Birds of War (5-4). Birds of War, the league's highest scoring team, vs a team one game ahead in the standings, but who has scored more than 100 fewer points on the season. Patronus with a win will move to 7-3, with two tough matchups ahead before finishing the season against lower-scoring teams in weeks 13 and 14. Birds of War has two lower-scoring teams in weeks 11 and 12, but then finishes the season against the Muggers and Bar Flies. A win to get to 6-4 and tie Patronus compresses the standings and gives the Birds a leg up on making the playoffs. And to make it worse--for both teams--they're both facing major bye week issues. Patronus has Geno Smith on bye and just lost backup QB Dak to injury, along with Josh Jacobs and Brock Bowers on bye weeks. Birds of War has Kenneth Walker and Nick Chubb on bye, along with David Njoku, Dustin Hopkins, and the Green Bay defense. Both teams have some players to slot in, but both are going to have to play waivers to fill their lineup--Patronus for a QB and Birds for a defense. So this will be an interesting matchup to see who manages to strike gold with bye week fillers.

Below that matchup, the other four teams in the league with winning records play four teams in the league with losing records. Those on the upper end of those matchups are hoping to avoid an upset, while those on the bottom know they're relying on an upset to keep improve their playoff hopes. And then you have Big Gulps (4-5) looking to avoid giving the Fury their first win of the season, to try to get to .500.

The most interesting of these other matchups is the Milwaukee Muggers (5-4) vs fill my Kupp (3-6). fill my Kupp has scored more points on the season than the Muggers despite the worse record, and based on the projections (once Kupp adjusts his lineup for a bye week) looks to be a nailbiter score. The Muggers next three are Bar Flies, Brockstars, and Birds of War, so the schedule ahead is TOUGH. Much better to walk into that buzzsaw at 6-4 than at 5-5. fill my Kupp has Bar Flies in week 12 and Brockstars in week 14, and they'd be hard pressed to reach 7-7 if they're 3-7 after this week. So this is going to be a big matchup for both teams.

Good luck to all...

 

[troglodytes]

Awesome write up as usual.

I just wanted to give a reminder that I found out the hard way a few seasons back. I believe that the tie breaker for the playoffs is still head to head record and not points scored, so individual matchups are super important from here on out.

 

[pshankstar]

Awesome write up as usual.

I just wanted to give a reminder that I found out the hard way a few seasons back. I believe that the tie breaker for the playoffs is still head to head record and not points scored, so individual matchups are super important from here on out.

You’re all welcome I did my part to help the league.

 

[betarhoalphadelta]

Awesome write up as usual.

I just wanted to give a reminder that I found out the hard way a few seasons back. I believe that the tie breaker for the playoffs is still head to head record and not points scored, so individual matchups are super important from here on out.

Yep. Last year we had a 5-way tie for the last 3 playoff spots. Figuring out those tiebreakers was not easy.

Sadly, every way I figured it going into the final week I realized I lost all tiebreakers, and I was proven right and missed the playoffs lol...

 

[TallDan]

Great news: I have Ja’marr Chase!

Bad news: In my other league, my opponent this week has him.

 

[betarhoalphadelta]

More than 2/3 of the way through the regular season, and 4 weeks to go until the playoffs. We're racing towards the finish with 6th place (as well as 4th and 5th) only 2 games back, so the fight for a playoff berth and even for the important first round bye are still completely up for grabs.

GotW Recap: Well, our game of the week was quite a defensive struggle! Birds of War put up the third-lowest point total of the week, but Beer is my Patronus said "hold my homebrew" and dropped the lowest score of the week and the 2nd lowest of the entire season. Ouch. It appears that Patronus with bye week troubles was expecting Nico Collins to be active, and chose not to insert Rashod Bateman into his lineup as a result, but even Bateman's 17 points would only have narrowed the gap to Birds of War. So Birds of War takes the Bye Week Battle. That moves both teams into a three-way tie for fourth place at 6-4 with the Milwaukee Muggers.

Playoff Locks: Still none. Brockstars joined Bar Flies atop the league at 8-2 with Bar Flies suffering a loss to Coneheads. Mathematically, we've gone from 11 teams having a path to 8 wins to 9 teams, so 8 wins is certainly not a lock. I've also looked at the scenarios for 9 wins. As of right now, Big Gulps at 5-5 would need to go 4-0 to get to 9 wins, and we'd need all three of our 6-4 teams (Muggers, Birds of War, Patronus) to go 3-1 from here on out to have a chance at 9 wins being our tiebreaker. It's unlikely, but I've looked at the schedule and it's possible. If Big Gulps goes 4-0 that adds a loss to 6-4 teams they play (Patronus this week and Muggers week 14), but Patronus and Muggers could still win their other 3. Muggers faces Birds of War in week 13, and would have to then win, while Birds of War would pick up that loss and need to be flawless in their other three. It's not likely, and EVERYTHING would have to break just right... But it's possible. So for the time being, even 9 wins isn't a lock.

Where will the [potential] tiebreaker fall? So we know 8 or 9 wins isn't a lock. But that doesn't mean 8 or 9 wins will ultimately be necessary. At this point, the only team mathematically eliminated from playoff contention is Finger Lakes Fury, because our 6th place team currently has 6 wins, and Fury can get to 4-10 at best. However, our 10th and 11th place teams are at 3-7, and could both potentially get to 7-7 as they don't play each other. And depending how things fall, 7-7 might be the tiebreaker. In fact, mathematically we could have our 6th-place team sitting at 6-8, allowing fill my Kupp and Hop To It to potentially have a way into the tiebreaker going 3-1 from here out. So no matter where you are, keep fighting!

Game Of The Week: Going to have to say it's the 8-2 Bar Flies vs the 6-4 Milwaukee Muggers. Bar Flies would love to move into sole first place again with a win (and Brockstars loss), but with Brockstars having a higher projected point total than Coneheads this week, a win for Bar Flies might be necessary just to stay tied for first. A first round bye in the playoffs is always valuable, and Bar Flies is firmly in that hunt. But a loss, especially paired with potential Brockstars and IPA/Blonde wins, tightens that shot at a bye. Especially as Bar Flies and Brockstars still face each other head-to-head in week 13. For the Muggers, they're headed into a schedule onslaught. The Muggers are currently the 6th highest scoring team in the league. Their next four week opponents currently have a combined record of 27-13 and are the 3rd, 5th, 2nd, and 4th highest scoring teams in the league, respectively. Every win is going to be hard fought the rest of the way for the Muggers, so getting one this week to ease the pressure to make the playoffs would be enormous.

Honorable Mention Game: 6-4 Beer is my Patronus faces 5-5 Big Gulps this week in a very important matchup for both their own playoff hopes and to help fill out the picture of what's necessary to make the playoffs at all. A win by Big Gulps will tie both teams at 6-5 with potentially two other teams if the Muggers fall in the GotW and Birds of War gets tripped up by Hop To It. On the other hand, Patronus getting to 7 wins moves them into great shape at 7-4 with both Prestige Worldwide and Finger Lakes Fury left to play in weeks 13 and 14 (after IPA/Blonde in week 12). A Patronus wins this week combined with wins from Birds of War and/or the Muggers puts intense pressure on Big Gulps and any team below them in the standings to be perfect--and if both win it eliminates Hop To It as their best possible record would be 6-8 and we'd already have 6 teams at 7 wins or better.

Will anyone commit to a Sacko Prize? So we currently have the Finger Lakes Fury sitting at 0-10. That hurts, especially because we can all see he's been managing his team. He got doubly unlucky with injuries to Olave and with DeVon Achane performing badly when Tua was injured, but on top of that is currently the team with the highest "points against". In fact, he's got almost 100 more points against (1577) than the highest scoring team in the league has scored (1480). It's brutal. But as much as there might be a reason to give up at that point, I want to see how the Fury finishes the season. Going 0-14 for an actively managed team with a manager that is not actively tanking would be an accomplishment in itself. So I'll make the following deal with @pshankstar -- keep fighting and managing your team like you're trying to win. If I win the championship, and despite putting in your best effort you finish the regular season at 0-14, I will send you beer. I figure at that point I'll be getting beer from 9 different teams, and am not required to send any, so I wouldn't mind rewarding such a hapless achievement. Will anyone else join me? If you end up the champ and the Fury keeps fighting but finishes 0-14, will you pledge to send beer?

Good luck to all this week! Except of course the Fury--you're playing against me

 

[pshankstar]

You’re too kind @betarhoalphadelta ! I won’t ever say no to beer but please don’t feel obligated too.

I not giving up and bound to get at least one win, hopefully. I made a swap this weekend to play Buffalo’s defense over KC’s which helped me get more points but of course not a victory.

Hopefully I break the streak this weekend!

 

[pshankstar]

For the record my streak will end!! It might not be till next year.

 

[pshankstar]

Come on! I was watching the TNF game last night. Philly’s offense didn’t look good moving the ball in the first half. The Commanders seemed to left a star WR back in Washington DC, so I was feeling pretty good my streak may end this week.
Fell asleep as the third quarter started and woke up to the post game show. Son of a gun!! Barkley decides to blow it open in the fourth quarter.
Well I’m not giving up but now I have a big hole to climb out of going into Sunday.

 

[TallDan]

Eh, @betarhoalphadelta had a ying and a yang with Barkley and McLaurin. Sure, things looked better before Barkley did Barkley things late in the game, but averaging the two out, they’re only a few points over projections.

 

[pshankstar]

 

[betarhoalphadelta]

Yeah @TallDan but I also see where @pshankstar is coming from on that one... The whole first half Barkley was getting some minor points and McLaurin was gone. He was feeling good and I was sweating it.

Then early in the 3rd quarter Barkley gets tackled at the 1 yard line and Hurts (who I'm facing this week in my other league) scores on a predictable tush push, and I was starting to get salty. Until Barkley started doing Barkley things and NOT getting tackled on the 1 a couple times.

Overall I'm pretty pleased to be about 6 points over my projection at this point. Because it wasn't looking that way for most of the game.

 

[pshankstar]

Yeah @TallDan but I also see where @pshankstar is coming from on that one... The whole first half Barkley was getting some minor points and McLaurin was gone. He was feeling good and I was sweating it.

Then early in the 3rd quarter Barkley gets tackled at the 1 yard line and Hurts (who I'm facing this week in my other league) scores on a predictable tush push, and I was starting to get salty. Until Barkley started doing Barkley things and NOT getting tackled on the 1 a couple times.

Overall I'm pretty pleased to be about 6 points over my projection at this point. Because it wasn't looking that way for most of the game.

That’s absolutely it. It sums up my year and sounds like my friends who are Bills fans. There’s a lot of hope early then nothing but defeat later.

 

[pshankstar]

My streak might end this week!!!
Right now it predicts a narrow victory but we all know those projections mean $h1t.

But one can hope, right?

 

[betarhoalphadelta]

My streak might end this week!!!
Right now it predicts a narrow victory but we all know those projections mean $h1t.

But one can hope, right?

Just might be VERY tight! And if I take a lead [as projected], we won't really know until tomorrow when Mixon plays.

 

[gromitdj]

…If I win the championship, and despite putting in your best effort you finish the regular season at 0-14, I will send you beer. I figure at that point I'll be getting beer from 9 different teams, and am not required to send any, so I wouldn't mind rewarding such a hapless achievement. Will anyone else join me? If you end up the champ and the Fury keeps fighting but finishes 0-14, will you pledge to send beer?

I can definitely join you here.

And fantastic write up, as usual!

 

[pshankstar]

Just might be VERY tight! And if I take a lead [as projected], we won't really know until tomorrow when Mixon plays.

Nixon needs a monster game for me to win now.

 

[betarhoalphadelta]

Nixon needs a monster game for me to win now.

Nixon? Been to his presidential library. Not sure he's gonna put up good numbers tonight, being dead and all tho

That said, while Mixon hasn't yet had a >30.2 point game this year, he's scored double-digits in all games except the one he left due to injury, and has scored in the 20s four times... Three of those in the upper 20s. So in a game where the Texans should shut down the Dallas offense, and likely be in positive (run-friendly) game script, I'm not exactly going to chalk this up as a win until the beautiful-at-any-size-lady starts caterwauling.

Elsewhere, Bar Flies has already punched their ticket to 9 wins, and Brockstars is projected to do so handily. With Muggers losing (to Bar Flies), this now means that 9 wins will be a lock. Big Gulps is looking like they're going to fall tonight according to projections (and then being unable to achieve 9 wins). But even if Big Gulps were to win that means that as they play the Muggers in a few weeks, it would be impossible for BOTH teams to get to 9. So now there are a maximum of 6 teams that can reach 9 wins.

9 wins is now a LOCK for the playoffs, which includes Bar Flies and [likely] Brockstars.

 

[troglodytes]

Here's hoping Houston D scores 14 points and it's run heavy all night, then.

I've got to claw back after Burrow, Amon Ra, and...Will Dissly killed me this week.

 

[TallDan]

Nixon needs a monster game for me to win now.

Well, he’s got half of a monster so far!

 

[betarhoalphadelta]

Well that sucked. But congrats @pshankstar !

 

[betarhoalphadelta]

Here's hoping Houston D scores 14 points and it's run heavy all night, then.

I've got to claw back after Burrow, Amon Ra, and...Will Dissly killed me this week.

In my other league, I was up 26 against the HOU DST, and up 30.2 here against Mixon. Lost both.

 

[troglodytes]

That's a double whammy. Don't worry the fantasy football karma seems to be swinging wildly these days.

 

[pshankstar]

Well that sucked. But congrats @pshankstar !

I can’t believe it! Finally pop the champagne like Zonka.

Good game!

 

[betarhoalphadelta]

Wow, what a Monday night! Four teams were done, with leads. Their four opponents all had Houston players (or DST), and needed to close the gap. What did they need? In order of biggest to smallest gap:

• fill my Kupp needed >32.02 from CJ Stroud
• Finger Lakes Fury needed >30.2 from Joe Mixon
• Birds of War needed >13.54 from the Houston DST
• Beer is my Patronus needed >4.04 from Nico Collins

Well, the game started off with a big bang as CJ Stroud hit Nico Collins with a 77 yard passing TD on the opening play, pushing Collins over the edge for Patronus with 14.7 points, and Stroud opening the game with 7.58 points to give Kupp a solid start... BUT WAIT! The play is called back due to ineligible man downfield! Take them both back to zero!

Then it became the Joe Mixon show, as Mixon scores two rushing touchdowns in the first quarter to cut Mr IPA & Mrs Blonde's lead over Finger Lakes Fury to a mere 6 points. Then... It settled down. The Texans only managed field goals for the next two quarters. Collins did move Patronus ahead of Big Gulps by about mid-game, but Stroud was only mildly chipping away, Mixon disappeared, and the Houston defense wasn't giving up much, but wasn't getting much either.

But as the fourth quarter started, the Houston defense forced two fumbles on the same play(!), recovering the second one in a scoop and score for the TD that put Birds of War ahead with 1231 to play. And they continued to hold Dallas scoreless, not giving any of it back. Then with 3:16 remaining, Mixon scored his third TD of the game on a 1 yard plunge, pushing Finger Lakes Fury off the winless column and breaking the streak.

So 3 of the 4 teams came back, two of them only managing to do so in the final quarter of play. That was exciting!

 

[betarhoalphadelta]

Now, onto the more important things... What does this mean for the league?

Locks: We now have a playoff lock. Both the Bar Flies and the Brockstars have reached 9 wins, and no more than 6 teams can mathematically get to 9 wins. Therefore, both teams are locks and now playing for seeding. There is a trio of teams at 7-4 and the Muggers at 6-5, who can also get to 9 wins. Although we have no teams at 8 wins, 8 wins would not currently be a lock, as Big Gulps can go 3-0 to get to 8 wins without causing any conflicts that would stop the teams ahead of getting to 9 wins, but it would require beating the Muggers in week 14 and the Muggers winning both of their next two games, which is not easy as they face the 9-2 Brockstars this week and the top-scoring team in the league, Birds of War, next week. A Muggers or Big Gulps loss at any time in the next two weeks makes 8 wins a lock.

First Round Bye: We're now getting enough clarity to start talking about it. Bar Flies and Brockstars have a 2 game lead over the trifecta at 7-4 (Birds of War, IPA/Blonde, Patronus). They face each other in week 13, so at least one is guaranteed to make it to 10 wins. One of IPA/Blonde and Patronus can't make it to 10 as they play this week, and in week 13 Birds of War and the Muggers face each other, which will either limit the Birds from the chance to make it to 10 wins, or limit the Muggers from their chance to make it to 9. So 10 wins might get into a tiebreaker (byebreaker? new fun word?) for the bye, and 9 is mathematically possible to be a tiebreaker for the second bye spot, but unlikely. 11 wins for either Bar Flies or Brockstars guarantees them a bye week.

The Playoff Run: We still have 11 teams mathematically in this, as the only eliminated team remains the Finger Lakes Fury. However, we're starting to get to the point where the teams at the bottom of the standings need a lot of help. fill my Kupp and the Coneheads are both at 3-8, and by going 3-0 AND the Muggers going winless AND no other team reaching 7 wins, could be in a tiebreaker at 6-8. However, this is complicated by the 6-5 Muggers and the 5-6 Big Gulps facing each other in week 14. This means that any win by Big Gulps in weeks 12 or 13 eliminate those 3-8 teams, as either the Muggers or Big Gulps would then be guaranteed to get to 7. And of course any win by Muggers eliminates them as well. The Coneheads are in slightly better shape at 4-7, but face Birds of War, Big Gulps, and IPA/Blonde in the next three weeks, which includes two of the top 3 scoring teams in the league. Getting to 7-7 will be tough. Big Gulps and Prestige Worldwide are both at 5-6, and I'd say both are still right in the thick of the race.

Game of the Week: Mr IPA and Mrs Blonde (7-4) vs Beer is my Patronus (7-4). At 7-4, neither team is a lock for the playoffs yet, but getting to 8 wins will most likely get a team in. Also important is that this matchup keeps the winner in the running for the first round bye. I suspect it will take 10 wins, and the loser of this matchup can only get to 9. Patronus has a fully intact squad with nobody on bye, while IPA/Blonde has one of their most surprising performers (Chase Brown) and a reliable PPR receiver (Khalil Shakir) on bye this week. The Jets DST are also inactive, but let's just say the underperforming Jets DST wasn't long for IPA/Blonde's roster either way... This is clearly a matchup dominated on paper by the running backs, as Patronus is rolling out a healthy CMC and Seattle's bellcow KW3, while IPA/Blonde is hoping Saquon does Saquon things and JT bounces back from a pedestrian outing against the Jets. This one might come down to Monday Night Football, as both teams have receivers going Monday and IPA/Blonde could potentially start a QB Monday. So it could make for another stressful Monday for both teams...

Honorable Mention: Brockstars (9-2) take on the Milwaukee Muggers (6-5). At 6 wins, with a tough schedule remaining, every single week presents an important opportunity for the Muggers. The Muggers (1555.80) have slightly outscored the Brockstars (1545.46) this year, so despite being three games back, this is a lot closer on paper than one might assume. That said, this is going to be a tough week for the Muggers, with Ja'Maar Chase and Kyle Pitts both on bye weeks. For the Brockstars, a win gets them closer to securing the all-important bye week. The Brockstars have some bye week issue with James Cook being inactive this week, and being relatively thin in the roster at the RB position. The Brockstars will also have to monitor the status of their namesake, 49ers QB Brock Purdy, who is currently day-to-day with a shoulder injury. A key story line in this matchup will be at the RB position, as both teams roster Detroit running backs. Brockstars has the electric Jahmyr Gibbs, while the Muggers have the reliable David Montgomery. While Gibbs is usually the higher scorer, Montgomery gets a lot of looks near the goal line and this matchup could swing early in a 1 PM ET game depending on which RB does or doesn't find the end zone, and how many times.

Down the standings, fill my Kupp (3-8) takes on the Bar Flies (9-2) hoping to keep their playoff chances alive, while the Coneheads (4-7) take on the highest scoring team in the league, Birds of War (7-4) hoping to keep from putting their playoff chances on life support. Prestige Worldwide (5-6) is looking to boost their playoff hopes taking on the no longer winless Finger Lakes Fury (1-10) and keeping them from starting a new streak, while Big Gulps (5-6) is likewise looking to boost their playoff hopes while ending those of Hop To It (3-8).

Onward and upward!

 

[betarhoalphadelta]

Hey, it's been a fun week. For a league that basically doesn't trade, I was sent one trade offer and had a negotiation about another this week. I wasn't expecting either this season, so them happening in the same week was pretty cool.

Not going to say who or what, because there's no point to air out private discussions/negotiations. Neither one resulted in anything. The first was a fair offer but just didn't work right for me for roster construction reasons, and the second was an interesting negotiation but we were just in different places on player valuation and couldn't come together on a deal that made sense for both.

But it was fun nonetheless.

I highlight it for two reasons:

1. To encourage people to look at your own roster, where your roster holes are, and other rosters, and try to envision places you might make a deal that serve both sides. If you live and die based on the waiver wire, you're missing a huge opportunity to improve your roster. Trading is that opportunity. The players discussed in both weren't "end of the bench" guys. We're talking starter material.
2. To point out something regarding trading: it's a negotiation and there doesn't ever need to be a deal. I think a lot of people get anxious about trades, thinking that if someone sends a trade offer it creates almost an expectation that there MUST be a deal at the end of it... Whether it's the deal that's offered or whether the result of negotiation MUST be a deal. If your BATNA* is no deal at all, then no deal is what you end up with if you don't have a deal you like.

So while nothing came of this, I hope there are discussions out there between teams and people keep the idea alive. Different teams have different needs. Different managers have different priorities and evaluation of players. If you don't explore it, you might be missing out on opportunities.

Spoiler

BATNA: Best alternative to a negotiated agreement. This is the "what happens if I merely walk away?" question. In my case I'm very happy with my roster, so I don't feel pressured to make a deal. In my other league I had an issue where due to an injury, failing to make a deal during that week was an automatic forfeit for as many weeks as the player was injured because I couldn't field a fully active roster (a requirement in that league), so it meant that my options were limited and I had to fight for the best deal I could find. I had to take a deal I didn't love, but felt it was the best I could get.

 

[betarhoalphadelta]

Week 12 is in the books, only two regular season matchups remain!

Monday night was rather pedestrian. The only team that was in a rough situation was Bar Flies, down about 6 points heading into MNF. But it wasn't that concerning, given that Bar Flies had Derrick Henry left to play, oh and on top of that was already a playoff lock. Predictably, Henry put up enough to win, and Bar Flies moved into sole first place at 10-2.

Playoff Locks: No change. Bar Flies and Brockstars are the only teams who have locked. IPA/Blonde and Birds of War improved to 8-4, but that's not a lock. With wins this past week from Prestige Worldwide and Big Gulps, both teams have 8 wins in reach. And with Patronus and the Muggers at 7-5, either can reach as well. And the way the schedule plays out, all four teams can make it to 8 without stopping each other. So 8 wins could be as deep as the 8th place team, meaning no lock yet. That said, this week means a lot. If Prestige Worldwide falls to Patronus, and either the Muggers or Big Gulps lose, 8 wins becomes a lock.

First Round Bye: No lock here, either. Bar Flies is in the catbird seat at 10-2, but they play Brockstars (9-3) this week so that could move both teams to 10 wins. Bar Flies concludes against Birds of War, still the highest-scoring team in the league after a 184-point drubbing of the Coneheads. IPA/Blonde and Birds of War, both at 8-2, are the only other teams that can reach 10 wins. Birds of War has by far the tougher schedule, facing the 7-5 Muggers this week and 10-2 Bar Flies in week 14, while IPA/Blonde faces the 3-9 Hop to It this week before finishing up against the 4-8 Coneheads. But if there's a team in this league up for that challenge, it's probably the highest-scoring team.

The Playoff Race: Well, we're down to 8. With the Muggers improving to 7-5 in 6th place, that means that the Coneheads (4-8), Hop to It (3-9), and fill my Kupp (3-9) cannot mathematically reach the playoffs with only two weeks remaining. That said, Prestige Worldwide (6-6) and Big Gulps (6-6) won their matchups and each one faces one of the 7-5 teams and one of the eliminated teams in the next two weeks. So both will not only be favored to win in one matchup against an eliminated team, but can prevent a 7-5 team ahead of them from running away with it. We could be sitting there with four teams tied next week at 7-6, depending on how things fall...

Game of the Week: It's going to be Beer is my Patronus (7-5) vs Prestige Worldwide (6-6). This one is huge for the playoff push for both teams. And it's a nailbiter of a matchup, with the season-long scoring to date between these teams only having a 4-point separation. This could be an elimination week for Prestige, as a loss and either a Muggers or Big Gulps win, would eliminate them. That would have them at 6-7, with Patronus getting to 8 wins, and either a Muggers win (already at 8 wins with a win) or a Big Gulps win (getting Big Gulps to 7-6 who faces Muggers next week meaning one would be guaranteed 8 wins) would put Prestige into the consolation bracket. For Patronus, a loss isn't as damaging as they face the Finger Lakes Fury in week 14 so still have a chance to get to 8, but a win puts them in prime position as it would eliminate Prestige from any potential tiebreaker at 8 wins. Here in week 13 there are no NFL byes, so both teams have the full complement of players, but Prestige Worldwide is going to have to keep an eye on the injury reports, with Brian Robinson and Tyreek Hill both listed as questionable.

Alternate: The Birds of War (8-4) take on the Milwaukee Muggers (7-5). For the Birds of War, a win locks them them into the playoffs and gives them a big advantage in the race for a first round bye, regardless of what happens in the Bar Flies / Brockstars matchup. I.e. if the Bar Flies wins, Birds of War would be tied with Brockstars (and possibly IPA/Blonde) at 9-4 while Bar Flies would have secured the bye. If Brockstars wins, then Birds of War would need to defeat Bar Flies in week 14 for a tiebreaker (possibly also including Brockstars and possibly IPA/Blonde), and we'd have to look at who wins that. For the Milwaukee Muggers, a win ensures that at worst they're in a tiebreaker for the playoffs, and depending on the outcomes of other games, 8 wins might be a lock. Additionally, the last thing the Muggers wants is to be 7-6 in a potential playoff elimination game next week with a 7-6 Big Gulps squad. That said, against a team that has scored >114 more points over the course of the season about 10 per week, and is operating at full health with no bye weeks, it's going to be an uphill battle for the Muggers. But this is fantasy football, and anything can happen.

Alternate Alternate: Okay, I can't let it go without mentioning the #1 Bar Flies (10-2) vs the #2 Brockstars (9-3). It doesn't ascend to Game of the Week territory, because the outcome is not all that exciting to the rest of the league as it relates to the playoffs. However, this is a big step for both teams in the attempt to lock up that first round playoff bye. And it can be meaningful to those below--a win by the Brockstars and getting to 10 wins means that the 7-5 teams are mathematically excluded from the first round bye, and the 8-4 teams must go 2-0 (and have one or both of those 10 win teams lose in week 14) to even have a chance at a tiebreaker. A win by Bar Flies absolutely secures a first round playoff bye regardless of week 14--when they face the formidable Birds of War--and the possibilities for the 8-4 and 7-5 teams to share in a tie with a 9-5 Brockstars, or the 8-4 teams to get to 10 wins ahead of a 9-5 Brockstars, all open up. Much like the Muggers, it is going to be an uphill battle against a fully healthy Bar Flies team that has cumulatively outscored the Brockstars by 143 points this season, especially with Brock Purdy, Josh Downs, and Austin Ekeler all on the injury report at the moment.

I hope that all have a happy and healthy [and delicious] Thanksgiving. Given the holiday, NFL games on Thursday/Friday/Sunday/Monday, and college football games on Friday/Saturday, it should be a good weekend of feasting and viewing!

 

[betarhoalphadelta]

So, a Monday Night Football matchup between the Browns and the Broncos. What a snooze-fest, right? And honestly, not a lot on the line. Most matchups were done. Beer is my Patronus was down a decent amount to Prestige Worldwide with David Njoku left to play, but who's going to expect a tight end to make up that deficit? And the Milwaukee Muggers were down about 15 to Birds of War, but with only the kicker left to play.

And then... We got a shootout! Bo Nix and Famous Jameis lighting it up both ways, although a few times too many Jameis threw it to the wrong team, leading to a Browns loss. But, in the aftermath, we had some fantasy points to tally up. Well, enough of those throws from Jameis went to David Njoku, and not enough of them from Nix went to Devaughn Vele, and the result was a big playoff-clinching win (more on that in a moment) for Beer is my Patronus. Unfortunately for the Milwaukee Muggers, the Broncos scored a lot of touchdowns and not enough field goals, and Will Lutz fell short giving the Birds of War their 9th win.

As it stands, that Patronus win gave us a lot of clarity, that I was *not* expecting yesterday. I was getting ready to start figuring out a lot of tiebreakers, that are now no longer needed.

Oh, one more... Shout out to the Finger Lakes Fury who had the second-highest score of the week, and managed to notch a second win! Always helps when your QB gets a touchdown pass and a touchdown reception--on the same play!

Playoff Race: We know what we have. Five teams have locked. We have a head-to-head matchup this week for the 6th spot. Everyone else is eliminated. Bar Flies at 11-2 and Brockstars at 9-4 were already locked. IPA/Blonde and Birds of war improved to 9-4 and are locked. Yesterday before MNF I thought we'd have a 4-way tie at 7-6 for two spots. But with a win, Beer is my Patronus at 8-5 is now a lock. The only possible other teams that can reach 8 wins are the Milwaukee Muggers and Big Gulps, but they can't both do it as they are both 7-6 and play each other this week. And that means that Prestige Worldwide at 6-7 is eliminated with only one week to go and being two games back of the winner of the Muggers/Big Gulps matchup. And of course the winner of that game will be 8-6 while the loser will be 7-7 and in 7th place, so that final spot comes down to this week's final matchup.

First Round Bye: With 11 wins, Bar Flies has locked up the #1 seed and one of the two first round byes. Yesterday I had already figured out the tiebreakers between the three teams at 9 wins (Brockstars, IPA/Blonde, Birds of War), thinking the battle for the second bye only concerned those teams. But with Patronus' late comeback, it's now possible for us to have a 4-way tie at 9 wins and have to figure out that tiebreaker. So we have 5 scenarios:

1. All three of the 9-4 teams win, to get to 10-4.
2. Two of three 9-4 teams win and one loses.
3. One of three 9-4 teams win and two lose.
4. All three of the 9-4 teams lose, and Patronus loses.
5. All three of the 9-4 teams lose, and Patronus wins to join a 9-5 tie.

Brockstars has defeated both other 9-4 teams. IPA/Blonde has lost to Brockstars and defeated Birds of War. Birds of War is 0-2 against both of those teams.

This means that Brockstars wins all ties (between those three). If Brockstars wins this week, no matter Brockstars locks up the bye. IPA/Blonde locks up the the bye if they win and Brockstars loses, regardless of what happens to Birds of War. And Birds of War locks up the bye if they win and the other two lose. If all three lose, AND Patronus loses, Brockstars gets the bye.

Now, if the three teams lose AND Patronus wins, we have a different tiebreaker. Brockstars is 3-0 against these teams. IPA/Blonde is 2-2 against these teams (played Patronus twice, splitting the series). Birds of War is 1-2. And Patronus is 1-3. So in that case, Brockstars again wins the tiebreaker and secures the bye.

This was all easier to figure out as none of the teams play each other this week. Birds of War has the hardest matchup, facing Bar Flies. Brockstars faces fill my Kupp (3-10), IPA/Blonde faces Coneheads (4-9), and Patronus faces Finger Lakes Fury (2-11).

Game of the Week: Well, this one is obvious. Who has the most on the line? It's the Milwaukee Muggers (7-6) vs the Big Gulps (7-6)! Winner gets the final playoff spot. Loser heads to the consolation bracket. This one is going to require a little bit of bye week management, particularly for Big Gulps. Big Gulps will be missing Lamar Jackson and Courtland Sutton, while the Muggers will be down Zach Ertz and their kicker, Will Lutz. Clearly that's a tougher ask for Big Gulps, especially as the Muggers have Kyle Pitts on the roster at the TE position. But both teams will be looking to fill holes, and hoping they pick the right players to do so. All of the Big Gulps current roster completes play on Sunday, while the Muggers have Ja'Marr Chase going in Monday Night Football. Assuming the Big Gulps don't fill holes with Monday players, it could all come down to Chase. Which means that on Monday night, the Muggers might be watching for Chase to put a cherry on top of a victory, or watching Chase hoping he'll dig them out of a hole. Either way, it should be fun!

Last week before the playoffs! Enjoy!