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Homebrew Talk - Beer, Wine, Mead, & Cider Brewing Discussion Forum

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betarhoalphadelta

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I'm content allowing our commish, @lupulinaddict , to make the determination on how to handle it.

I realize you were asking us to try to find consensus, but I'm pretty sure you should just propose something and as long as nobody finds it horribly objectionable (i.e. that everyone sense beer to first place *and* to you lol), we go with it.
 

betarhoalphadelta

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What a terrible matchup for TNF.

In real life you've got the disappointing 5-7 Raiders traveling to the Defending Super Bowl Champs(!), who sit at 3-9(!!) with no OL, no QB (despite the recent waiver claim), a trash heap at RB and down their #1 and #2 receivers.

In fantasy, for our final week of the regular season, effectively the only true fantasy relevant players are Adams and Jacobs. I realize teams this week are starting Moreau and maybe Akers or Higbee, but with TE being a wasteland and Akers not having an OL, it's not like these are players expected to have monster games. And all 5 names just listed are on two fantasy rosters in our league, so it's not even a "spread the wealth" scenario where this impacts a lot of matchups.

On paper, in the preseason this looked like a banger. Stafford and Carr duking it out, with Kupp and ARob on the former and Davante Adams and Darren Waller on the latter. Well in week 14 it looks like a dud.
 

TallDan

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I probably had my priority wrong on this one…
CF25B016-3AF7-42FA-BF8B-8AA5D96D2A60.png
 

betarhoalphadelta

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Heading into SNF:

  • Big Gulps advances to the playoffs with their 8th win. Pending the result of my matchup with Dawg Pound, may or may not have a tiebreaker route to the #2 seed and a bye.
  • I'm comfortable calling it for Hefeheisman Winners over Lone Tree Farms at this point, which means that 7 wins is enough to at least get into a tiebreaker for the final one or potentially two playoff spots.
  • Bones are Their Money is in a very tight matchup with Bar Flies, projected roughly 3 1/2 points ahead. Both teams have two players remaining, with three of the four playing in SNF. This determines whether Bones has a guaranteed playoff spot vs. having to rely on tiebreakers, and determines whether there is one or two spots open at 7-7 in the playoffs.
  • incREDibles and Hop To It are also in a close matchup to determine who has a guaranteed playoff spot and who has to hope their tiebreakers hold up. Hop To It is projected about 10 points higher with three players remaining (incl. QB which always throws off projections due to the 0.5 ppc scoring). incREDibles only has one player remaining, but that player is Justin Herbert who now has, for the first time in months, all of his primary pass-catchers healthy. And again with the 0.5 ppc scoring, projections are spotty here. So this is going to be a BIG night. And of course Hop To It has the Pats defense going in MNF, so even if incREDibles takes the lead tonight, tomorrow may still determine the matchup.
  • Finally, although it doesn't matter as far as REACHING the playoffs, Mr IPA and Mrs Blonde and Dawg Pound are in a tight game to determine whether Dawg Pound locks up the #2 seed and a first-round bye, or whether Dawg Pound has to rely on tiebreakers to determine it. Dawg Pound jumped out to an early lead, and is projected to win, with Austin Ekeler remaining to play tonight. IPA/Blonde took a chance starting Tua over Mahomes, and still has two additional players left to play. With the QB scoring, the 0.5 ppc for Tua makes Dawg Pound's 15 point advantage in the projection suspect. But it could go either way.

With the SNF matchup expected to be high-scoring with an over/under of 54.5, it's expected that players going tonight are all in prime positions to score points. It'll just come down to how that scoring is distributed.
 

betarhoalphadelta

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Heading into MNF:

  • Bones has a solid but not insurmountable 19 point lead over Bar Flies. Bar Flies has James Conner remaining, while Bones has Nick Folk. Conner has scored >20 points in 2 of his last 3 games, but the Pats D is a sterner test than what he's faced in those games. My expectation is that Bones will pull out the victory.
  • incREDibles with no players remaining has a 38 point lead over Hop To It, who has Kyler Murray and the Patriots D. With 0.5 ppc QB scoring, that's a lot narrower than the projections show. The problem for Hop To It, however, is that Kyler Murray throwing TDs hurts the Pats D, and the Pats D getting sacks and interceptions hurts Kyler Murray. So the combination of the remaining roster spots actually works against each other in the attempt to get those 38 points.
  • Dawg Pound with no players remaining has a 32 point lead over Mr IPA and Mrs Blonde, who has Rhamondre Stevenson remaining. The most Stevenson has scored all year is just north of 25, so even with Damien Harris doubtful for this game, it's unlikely to happen. My expectation is that Dawg Pound will win and lock up the #2 seed and first round playoff bye.
 

betarhoalphadelta

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And LoneTreeFarms, by virtue of beating both Hop To It and HBT Football Team in the regular season for a 2-0 H2H2H record, earns the #6 seed and final playoff spot.

Congrats! Those two wins probably didn't seem all that important at the time, as they happened in weeks 4 and 6, but that's the difference between the playoff bracket and the consolation bracket.
 
OP
OP
L

lupulinaddict

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I'm content allowing our commish, @lupulinaddict , to make the determination on how to handle it.

I realize you were asking us to try to find consensus, but I'm pretty sure you should just propose something and as long as nobody finds it horribly objectionable (i.e. that everyone sense beer to first place *and* to you lol), we go with it.
I went back and read everyone’s responses from preseason.

This is my plan….

3/4 place is usually meaningless. This game plays to pay #2. #3 gets to choose If he wants to ship to #1 or #2, #4 stuck with the other.

Similar to money league payout…

#1-10 shipments, no ship

#2-1 shipment from 3/4, no ship

#3- simulate money back by being able to choose a closer shipping location. Let’s you play for something til the end.

As long as the playoff teams don’t disagree, and this doesn’t make things overly complicated, I suggest we run with this and see how it goes.

Thoughts?
 

betarhoalphadelta

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Barring craziness, it looks like Bones are their Money is advancing to face Mr IPA and Mrs Blonde, while Big Gulps looks set to close it out tonight and advance to face Dawg Pound.

Per @lupulinaddict above, that means that the stakes are now high. One win guarantees a team some free beer. Two wins and you get a LOT of free beer!
 

betarhoalphadelta

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Going to be frigid and windy in a lot of games today. To an extent that may change some of our matchups based on who is playing or not, where they're playing, and whether or not any teams are willing or able to throw the ball.

I'll be watching it all with the windows open, wearing shorts, because it's gonna be 77 and sunny here today.
 

troglodytes

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I didn't want to say anything yesterday and jinx it. Keenan Allen terrifies me though. With our scoring, I have a sneaky suspicion he's going to put up 30pts and prove that he was worth the draft pick for one good game at the right time.

GL tonight & tomorrow Mr IPA. no matter what happens, this has been one of the most competitive seasons. I think 80% of our league was within 2 wins of each other for the whole back half of the season, which is awesome.
 

betarhoalphadelta

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Wow.... My condolences, @troglodytes -- that was one of the most epic bad beats that I've ever seen in fantasy football. Went into Sunday thinking I needed ~43 points plus whatever the Denver DST got, and in the end I came up short with only ~41 points from Allen and Jeudy. Yet, the Denver DST, one I might have been looking at if I were streaming defenses, was only one of two defenses in the league to go negative in week 16, so 41 was enough. It's made even worse that most of the reason the Broncos DST did so bad was that their putrid offense was terrible, turned the ball over multiple times, yet still managed to get Jeudy to 18.7 fantasy points.

I didn't deserve that W, but I'll take it.
 

troglodytes

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That was an epic collapse, I can't even be mad. Your Rams call to arms worked in spectacular fashion.

I find solace in the fact that I needed 18 pts from Allen last night to advance in another league so it was a fine line I had to walk to come out 2-0.

Congrats and good luck, you've been dominant all season.
 

betarhoalphadelta

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Looks early on like a tight projections matchup between Mr IPA and Mrs Blonde (me) and Big Gulps. Right now IPA/Blonde is projected 2 points above Big Gulps, so very, very close.

Looking at how we got here, these teams couldn't have been constructed much differently.

I ended up going zero-RB, but based on where things fell to me ended up with Kelce in the 2nd round and Mahomes in the 3rd, both who are the #1 player at their position so far. Started with Diggs, then grabbed Keenan Allen and Jerry Jeudy (who both have had rough years, Allen due to injury, and Jeudy due to incompetence elsewhere on the Broncos roster), who both are coming into form now. I was lucky with a number of later RB picks paying off, Dameon Pierce who helped me to the playoffs but is now out for the season, Rhamondre Stevenson who was projected to be the 1B or even 2nd back in a backfield but saw the expected leader of the committee battle injury all year, and Devin Singletary who has been solid if not spectacular. The team was rounded out with players like Allen Lazard, who was useful as an injury fill-in for Allen/Jeudy when every other Packers WR was injured, but who has now been forgotten. The plan was to stream defenses and kicker, but via bye week drops the team now has Elliott on a high-powered offense and the 49ers defense. It's been one of those lucky years when the roster in the playoffs actually pretty strongly resembles the roster one expected to roll out on draft day.

Big Gulps had a very traditional draft. I don't know if it was intended to be a draft based on best player available (BPA), whether the players taken were intentionally targeted, or whether the goal was to balance the RB and WR positions in the early rounds, but the draft started WR/RB/RB/WR/WR/RB. Those players have been the solid core of the team, although there have been a few injury problems through the year (notably first-rounder Ja'Marr Chase, but he's back to full strength now). From there things went to hell. QBs were late rounds with Brady and Tua, neither of which are still on the roster. TE was Freiermuth, the same. A lot of questions still remain at the QB spot, but Evan Engram at TE has finally started to round out into the player people thought they were getting when he came out of the draft, so that's been a good addition for Big Gulps as he's #5 at the position this season. Likewise he doesn't have the same kicker or defense as draft day, but Maher is the #1 kicker this season and the Eagles DST is #4, so no slouch there. Big Gulps had to fight HARD to make the playoffs, as for a while the team was up near the very top in points scored against so the record didn't reflect the quality of team, but is #3 on the year in points scored, so it's no surprise to see this team in the finals.

This one is likely to come down to Monday Night Football, too, as it's the Bills/Bengals. For IPA/Blonde that's Devin Singletary and Stefon Diggs, and for Big Gulps that means Ja'Maar Chase and possibly Gabe Davis.

I'll be glued to the TV on Sunday as a big pot of pho simmers away on the stove, and I'll need to convince Mrs Blonde that we need to eat earlier than usual on Monday because we're doing burgers and onion rings, so I want to be back in front of the TV by the 2nd quarter or so...
 

betarhoalphadelta

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This one is likely to come down to Monday Night Football, too, as it's the Bills/Bengals. For IPA/Blonde that's Devin Singletary and Stefon Diggs, and for Big Gulps that means Ja'Maar Chase and possibly Gabe Davis.

Well, that's true. The projections were EXTREMELY tight until Josh Jacobs threw down some stats heading into the end of regulation, and now Big Gulps has a 9.1 point lead.

Singletary is riding pine, so it comes down to what each team's first round WR picks do. Is it going to be Stefon Diggs, or is it going to be Ja'Maar Chase+9.1?

I'm not going to say I'm confident about my chances here with that deficit, but it can still go either way.
 

troglodytes

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What an insane end to the season (and horrifying for Hamlin). Any ideas on how to sort out such a close championship game?
 

betarhoalphadelta

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What an insane end to the season (and horrifying for Hamlin). Any ideas on how to sort out such a close championship game?

At this point I'm just sickened by that game. My wife and I were watching and pretty much spent the night shellshocked and waiting for any updates from the TMZ of the NFL, Adam Schefter. It really puts real football in perspective, and puts our little fake football game in even more stark perspective. Just hoping that Hamlin survives and that he's blessed with at least some quality of life after this.

As for the season, if they do resume the game at some point (I'm not thinking that will happen), then let it play out and the outcome on the field determines it. Given that this is the final game of the season, it's not like the outcome affects next week's matchup... Even if it's not played out until next week sometime, I think it makes sense to wait and see what the NFL does. Looks like that's what the platform is doing too.

If not, well, fantasy football is a cruel mistress. It's not like I was down 9.1 points with Josh Allen remaining and Big Gulps having nobody, where I would have been highly favored to win, barring an Allen injury. It was one WR vs another, plus having to make up the deficit. And Chase was projected for more than Diggs.

The way I look at it:
  • At kickoff, I trailed by just under 9.1 points.
  • At kickoff, I was projected to lose by ~12 points.
  • At the time the game was suspended, I had made up ground but was still down by ~4.5 points.
  • At the time the game was suspended, I was still projected to lose despite making up ground.
"Close" only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades. If the game doesn't resume and NFL.com locks the scores where they are, then it is what it is. Anything else would be unfair to Big Gulps who had the lead and was projected to win when it was suspended.

So while it's not the greatest way to lose a fantasy football championship, I'm at peace with it.
 

troglodytes

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Looks like NFL.com is adopting the same solution as ESPN, which seemed the most fair out of all of them I heard. They are discussing playing "week 19" and pushing the wildcard. If that is the case the game will retroactively be updated on NFL.com. Letting the players determine the results really is the best way to handle it, I think.

Two weeks from now when its actually played ( if it is played) we'll have a winner; just have to wait with baited breath the next couple weeks before we have a result. If the game isn't played, the result is still somewhat fair as Mr IPA and Mrs Blond was down both pre-game and at the point the game was suspended.

Either way, great season everyone.
 

TBC

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Congrats to Big Gulps on taking down the crown this year!

Ok @_BullDog_ -- Who do you want to ship to? I'm in Southern California. @TBC (Big Gulps) is in... Crap, I have no friggin' clue. This determines who you ship to, and who @troglodytes ships to (since he gets the opposite of who you choose).
Congratulations everyone. Been a little hectic here. As for @_BullDog_ Im in PA. So it looks like your choice is east or west coast. Once bulldog decides I’ll send out a pm with my address.

Thanks again everyone for participating and a great season, @lupulinaddict for running and @betarhoalphadelta for a crazy Super Bowl. Timing is everything. Had I played bulldog a week later in the semifinals I believe I would have gotten destroyed.
 

TBC

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Any preferred styles, or ones you would prefer we avoid?
I like IPAs, NEIPAs, DIPAs and big stouts. I’m willing to try anything except smoked beers. I‘ve tried a few smoked beers and just can’t do it. Thanks
 

TBC

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Received a sweet box from @Chorgey. Chorgey, the funny thing is Iron Hill has a location in Lancaster and Hershey which are both only 30 minutes away and I’ve never tried any of their beers. Can’t wait to try them all. Thanks!

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