To hit your pre-boil SG target, you need to have a predictable mash efficiency, and control your volume precisely. To hit your OG target, you also have to control your boil off volume.
Your mash efficiency is made up of two factors: conversion efficiency and lauter efficiency. Lauter efficiency (for batch or no sparge) varies with the grain weight to pre-boil volume ratio. If you increase the grain weight for the same pre-boil volume, the lauter efficiency will go down. To keep lauter efficiency constant, you would have to increase your pre-boil volume by the same percentage as you increased your grain weight, and then boil off the excessive water to hit your post-boil volume target. This becomes unmanageable when boil times start exceeding 2 hrs. So, you usually end up taking a lauter efficiency hit with bigger beers. The following chart shows how lauter efficiency varies with grain to pre-boil ratio for various numbers of sparge cycles, and two different grain absorption rates (0.12 is typical for an MLT.)
Conversion efficiency can reach 100%, but should be 95% or better. The primary determinant of conversion efficiency is fineness of crush (as stated previously.) Mash time, temp, and pH also play lessor roles in conversion efficiency. You can easily measure your conversion efficiency using the
method here.
Mash efficiency is easily calculated using any common brewing software. Once you have you mash efficiency and conversion efficiency, you can calculate your actual lauter efficiency as:
Lauter Efficiency = Mash Efficiency / Conversion Efficiency
If your lauter efficiency is less than what is shown on the chart, then you should look to improve your lauter process (although OP sounds like they are doing things right.)
Sparge water temperature makes no difference
IF your conversion is essentially complete at the end of your allotted mash time. If conversion is not complete, then hot sparge water will heat up the mash, accelerating the conversion process until the amylase enzymes are all denatured. In the case of incomplete conversion, hot sparge water can drive conversion more towards completion, and give increased conversion efficiency and thus increased mash efficiency. This is what is being observed by brewers who say that a mash out improves their efficiency.
Brew on