I would not recommend using water with your probe. Just regulate the air temp. Water has a much higher specific heat capacity, meaning it takes a lot to heat it up and cool it off. You'll end up running your fridge for an hour and a half just to cool it a degree or two, then you'll have a really cold ambient temperature in the fridge that will keep on cooling your beer after the fridge shuts off. It only takes a few minutes at a time to change the temp inside a fridge, and if you set your differential to 2 degrees, it won't turn on but for 6-8 minutes at a time. The air temp will fluctuate 2 degrees up and down throughout the day, but your beer will stay right around the midrange temp.
I do this in my fridge, it works great.
Roman