Hop Decline Rate

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ere109

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I'm planning to brew my first barleywine this holiday season, with the express purpose of sharing it next holiday season. I know that hops fall out over time, so is there a decent calculator to use to plan for x amount of hoppiness a year from now?
 
I dont know of any calculator off hand, however, I also aged my barley wine for an entire year and i added hops targeting 100 IBU. I can say at this point a year later the malt flavors are coming through and its a great barley wine. I have only opened 3 to see how they are coming along, Christmas day will be one year exactly and I cant wait
 
I just happen to have analyses of Fuller's Vintage Ale at bottling and after a number of years.

2010 Vintage Ale started at 41.3 IBUs and a year later was 30.25.
2009 Vintage Ale started at 38.35 IBUs and 2 years later was 23.1.
2008 Vintage Ale started at 41.7 IBUs and 3 years later was 26.3.
2007 Vintage Ale started at 44 IBUs and 4 years later was 30.1.

The bitterness drops the most in the first 12 months and after that declines much more slowly.
 
That is great - thanks. So expect to lose about 10 ibu in one year. Rough number to start by.
 
I've found: Dry hop aroma goes first. Hop flavor is second. Once the hop flavor starts to fade the beer takes on a sweeter malty character. (if you've ever had an old Fullers, or an old DFH 90min, you'll know exactly what I mean). Bitterness seems to be the last to fade.
 
Find someone with a Bigfoot vertical (very common) and drink that.

The short answer is that if you make a hugely hopped barleywine like bigfoot the bitterness seems to drop a lot in the first year and then slowly thereafter and the aroma/flavor drops from a metric crap-ton to very little over about 2-3 years.
 
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