HomeBrewTalk Survey

[drksky]

Not really anything about the survey itself, but the email said something about the hobby being in a bit of a decline? Curious by what metric?

In my area it seems like the opposite. LHS reported in a recent newspaper article that sales were up a decent amount over the past year.

 

[raysmithtx]

Craft Breweries: I don't know what part of the country you are in but overall there apparently is a bit of decline. I believe it is Zymurgy that prints the results of their nationwide survey every year. They assess a lot of different metrics. In my opinion, there is a pendulum effect and it has started swinging to the other side now. It seems like every month there is a new craft brewery starting up in my area (Dallas/Fort Worth) and I suspect that the market is headed to over saturation at this point. A lot of them may go out of business, some will consolidate with others and a few will make in on their own merit. I'm all for competition in the market place but I'm guessing a lot of business plans were written based on little to no competition.... and that's simply not the case these days in my area.

Homebrewers: A lot of profit is made on new people to the homebrew hobby. They need equipment and sometimes they buy a lot of it. I did and I know a lot of others that did too. But now I rarely buy any equipment since I'm perfectly happy with my system. So my LHBS is only selling me grains and yeast for my brewing about 2 times per month. At say $35 for each brew, that's only $70 per month on average from me. Nothing to compare to the hundreds and hundreds of dollars I spent on equipment to get to this point. So without the constant influx of new homebrewers every month I can see the LHBS profits getting harder and harder to come by. Competition says they can't raise prices so in my area they work hard at bringing new people into the hobby every month.

 

[Brownalemikie]

Yep, I took the survey and gathered the same thoughts about the decline. However I disagree because many of my friends are starting to brew their own beer.

 

[unionrdr]

Took care of that right after bottling the Mumme. I think the effect is due to some 1.2 million plus home brewers in the US only needing ingredients at this point?

 

[soccerdad]

I was a bit surprised with all the questions about my sex life.

 

[day_trippr]

Not really anything about the survey itself, but the email said something about the hobby being in a bit of a decline? Curious by what metric?[...]

Oh, FFS! I take a month of vacation and it totally freaks out the industry!?

Sheesh!

 

[Brownalemikie]

I was a bit surprised with all the questions about my sex life.

I agree....what does Viagra have to do with home brewing?

 

[Homercidal]

I wasn't going to take the survey, but then I thought it might be nice to win the Ipad so I could use it in the garage on brewday.

 

[Teromous]

When a survey based on a hobby opens with questions about my gender, income, and education I just close it out. Obviously the creator of the survey is about as interested in the hobby as my doctor is my FICO score. Sorry if this derails your thread drksky. In an attempt to keep it on track I will bite. I will use my LHBS as a reference point and over the years I have seen a massive increase in both the quality and availability of both ingredients and equipment. When I first started out an employee recommended that I visit Walmart to look for a large stainless steel pot as they did not carry any in stock. Now the same store carries Blichmann pots as well as accessories such as the Blichmann Tower of Power. I used to have to order specialty yeast and grains online but now the store carries an abundance of both. There is a possibility that the "bubble" has burst and it is just taking longer for us (or me) to see it but right now I am on cloud 9. I also recently discovered a new insert "mini-mag" in the local newspaper solely dedicated to craft beer with a small section highlighting the homebrew store I shop at with a full-sized photo of the staff and members of the local homebrew club. There was even a list of other homebrew clubs a person could join in the area. For a lot of us this is old hat but with the visibility I have seen I would call it a new Renaissance.

 

[drksky]

Homebrew or Craft, in my area neither seem to be waning. Although, as previously mentioned, it could be that those ripples have not reached me in Central Illinois. 5 years ago we had two brew pubs. One decent that is now nationally distributing the other a dive bar that also made beer for a time which is now closed. Within a 60 mile radius, micros and nanos have been popping up and the ones that I have visited make decent beer. Commercial craft on tap has also been increasing. *shrug* We've always been kind of sheltered from national trends. Maybe that's it.

 

[Sailingeric]

I am not sure craft beer is waning here either but I do think there is a lot more small brew pubs who are just happy selling their beer at their pub versus breweries trying to be the next Widmer, Rogue or Stone Brewing.

 

[TxBrew]

It of course varies by locale but overall the hobby has been on a year over year retraction since the recession "ended". There are lots of pushes across the industry to revert the trend and I see progress already. Lots of speculation on why, in the recession you had more people out of work which meant free time plus looking to save, craft breweries are def. a factor I think. Whereas 5-10 years ago you wouldn't see a saison in a corner store at all, then we start seeing belgian saison and french saison. Now I can go to the gas station and get a saison brewed 15 miles away. In Texas by 2020, people predict 20% craft beer sales total of beer sales. I've wondered too about hydroponic growing, lots of brew stores sell hydro gear for a reason, with Colorado, Washington, Oregon and Alaska going full adult rec, 20+ States medical, is there a loss to that hobby becoming more popular.

 

[DromJohn]

My regional store had wine maybe from the beginning, has added cheese and distilling, then became a bottle shop, and now is a growler shop. Buy over a certain amount and you get to spin a wheel for freebies, three of which are classes in beer, wine and cheese making. My sense is that the growler shop is the top money maker.

 

[brewcat]

Generally I feel the economy as a whole is stagnant to declining. I see people getting by with what they already have instead of upgrading. As a homebrew shop that would lead to selling mostly necessary ingredients.

Is interest in the hobby in decline or just revenue?

 

[whitehause]

I got into home brewing because of the lack of good offerings years ago. Now with the selection that's available, a lot of people can find something they like at almost any distributor. And lets face it, this isn't a hobby you get into to save money on beer. Just ask my wife when my new $900 conical fermenter showed up.....lol....kinda throws the " but I'm saving money" argument out the window.

 

[C-Rider]

I seem to notice less posts here than say a year ago. Of course I'm not counting so I could be wrong. I'm brewing less because of a source for dated craft beer that is cheaper than I can brew.

 

[unionrdr]

I still think it's a matter of market saturation when it comes to brewing kits & the like. Combine that with the explosion of craft beers in America, & you have another part of the reason. We are considered the mecca of craft beers in the world today as well.

 

[GHBWNY]

My s-i-l works with local microbreweries and wineries, providing them with his company's custom coffees for their cold brews and coffee additions. Had a local micro's "Coffee Belgian Tripel" (once I got past the slightly skunky aroma, the taste was WONDERFUL!) made with his coffee just yesterday. When we talk, he consistently mentions the increasing cooperation going on between different brewers, bottlers, packagers, distributors, etc., basically seeing more cooperation on their part to share the local market with their 'competition'. From the outside, it might appear that the small guy is abdicating his individuality, but if he is, it is only at the expense of losing his share of the market profit. Most micros in this area tap other micros' products in-house. As a brewery grows and postures themselves with other breweries' products, could this translate into, "the local brewery's business is waning"? Perhaps, but is it true?

 

[unionrdr]

^ Another good point. Cooperation is usually a good thing. Some might see it as waning in the marketplace, when in reality everybody's just learning to play nice together for the good of all. But I still think in craft/ home brewing, that market saturation will be cyclical, just like pop & I knew the auto industry to be.

 

[ImNoExpert]

Not really anything about the survey itself, but the email said something about the hobby being in a bit of a decline? Curious by what metric?

In my area it seems like the opposite. LHS reported in a recent newspaper article that sales were up a decent amount over the past year.

Based on what I've read/heard on podcasts, the AHA did a survey of LHBS nationwide and saw a trend of declining sales. I think that through this and perhaps other metrics (i don't recall, this was a while ago), they found that there aren't necessarily fewer homebrewers, homebrewers are just brewing slightly less.

Now I'm sure that this isn't the case everywhere-- my own LHBS just moved to bigger and better location-- but is generally the trend nationwide.

 

[Cyclman]

I am with @Txbrew. You can get most any type of craft commercially now, there's more selection in a decent local bottle shop than you can possibly drink. If you're a craftsman, homebrewing is fun- but compared to 10y ago, when if you wanted a rauchbier your only choice was to brew it, today is a commercial craft brew heaven.

 

[Brownalemikie]

It seems Northern Brewer isn't suffering a decline as I just received the following email regarding my recent order:

"Dear fellow homebrewer,

Thank you for your order. We saw a massive spike in homebrewing orders this week, looks like back to brew season is in full effect! Because of that we are running a little behind in our warehouse.

Your order is in progress, but just in case we miss your ship date by a day we are sending you this special offer.

Please accept this code for $10 off your next order as a sign of our apology."

 

[DromJohn]

FWIW, in 1991, a friend of my father convinced be to start homebrewing and gave me Patrick Baker's "The New Brewers Handbook". Handbook in hand, I went to the LHBS in Winston-Salem and started filling a shopping cart with equipment. To the side I noticed a wall of refrigerated commercial beer, a substantially better selection than I had seen anywhere else in North Carolina. I unloaded my shopping cart and instead took home two cases of singles and one case of Anchor Merry Christmas & Happy New Year.

Why brew if such a large variety of import and craft brew was available?

Meanwhile, I cook a random recipe once a week (something I've done since 1974). In Fall 2009 when a random.org, out of over 700 cookbooks, came up with Continental Light Lager from Baker's Handbook, I finally became a homebrewer.

 

[Denny]

Not really anything about the survey itself, but the email said something about the hobby being in a bit of a decline? Curious by what metric?

In my area it seems like the opposite. LHS reported in a recent newspaper article that sales were up a decent amount over the past year.

I'm on the Governing Committee of the AHA and we track and discuss this kind of stuff. Yes, the hobby is declining. Although it may be accurate to say it's not growing as fast as it once was. Both the number of homebrewers and homebrew stores are lower than they have been the last few years. Homebrewing seems to work inversely to the economy. When the economy was declining, homebrewing grew because people have more time and less money. Now that the economy is turning around, people have more money and less time. Another trend we're seeing is people who don't want to commit to homebrewing being a lifestyle...they want an easy activity they can do along with the rest of the activities in their lives. That means more small batches and minimal equipment.

 

[Denny]

It seems Northern Brewer isn't suffering a decline as I just received the following email regarding my recent order:

"Dear fellow homebrewer,

Thank you for your order. We saw a massive spike in homebrewing orders this week, looks like back to brew season is in full effect! Because of that we are running a little behind in our warehouse.

Your order is in progress, but just in case we miss your ship date by a day we are sending you this special offer.

Please accept this code for $10 off your next order as a sign of our apology."

"This week" does not constitute a trend.

 

[Phunhog]

I took the survey and I have to concur that homebrewing is on the decline to some degree. My anecdotal experience is that the forums on HBT no longer seem as busy as they once were. I still check it about 1x a day but a few years ago it was like 10x a day. A big part of that is after brewing for 8 years and receiving a ton of great information you start to see the same topics come up time and time again. My bet is that a lot of experienced brewers are in the same boat.
I have also noticed that my homebrew club membership is on the down swing....some neighboring clubs have basically shut down due to lack of interest. It actually just hit me last week. A guy was selling a bunch of high end brewing equipment and he was selling EVERYTHING....like I am NEVER going to brew again. Turns out he was one of the founding members of our club. This was a guy who was a BJCP judge, taught homebrewing classes, had his own barrels, everything.... I figured he had moved away but it turns out he just found "other" hobbies.
So why am I still around and consistently brewing for the last 8 years? The biggest reason is that I brew for charity events primarily now. It my way of giving back to my local community. Don't get me wrong I still love to brew and drink beer. But I have found that now my brewing has a "bigger purpose".....and that's what keeps me going.

 

[Brownalemikie]

"This week" does not constitute a trend.

Well, if I keep getting $10 discounts, I'll let you know.