First year, expect 100 lb or less. Second year, you should be able to push that acre to 500 lb. By third/fourth year, expect full harvest if you've been doing your irrigation, nutrient schedule, pruning, pest management and weeding correctly. Budget 20 hrs/week from May - August for the first two years for pulling weeds, watering and chasing bugs.
How do brewer's want their hops? It depends. I'm up in Madison and we sell nearly everything dried and pelletized because its what the brewers in WI, MN, IL and IN are demanding. In MI, there are a few brewers that prefer whole cone. All over, there are various brewers who will take wet, whole cone for harvest beers. If you can sell them wet, that is awesome but there is a lot of controversy over what the price should be and a lot of logistical problems coordinating the harvest and brew. From the point they are picked, you need to get them in the kettle within a few hours.
That said, I make all my growers at least dry a portion of their harvest the first 2 years and calculate moisture content. Its a lot trickier then you would think. My experience is that most growers will screw up the drying process (and lose the entire crop) at least 2 times in the first 4 years. I prefer that happens the first two rather than the 4th when they are trying to finally break even.
Who should be your market? Selling direct to homebrewers is awesome but making 1 oz packages sucks and its hard to maintain those customers since so many people brew for a year or two and then move on to the next hobby. If you sell through brew shops, you will get less than 50% of the final sale price even though your costs are about the same.
Your best bet is linking up with a local brewer, developing a good relationship and being open with your plans and projected harvest. They have to trust you and believe that you could become a reliable source of hops for their business. This means delivering it in the final form they dictate and probably getting the lab work done to give them at least alpha acids and oil.
Organic? Nice thought but it doesn't pan out economically. With organic production, you have a 50% reduction in harvest due to nutrient deficiency. Hops need an incredible amount of nitrogen in a very short window and organic just can't do it. Unfortunately, we've only seen a 10% boost in price for organic hops. We thought with the change in the law, that would increase but it still hasn't happened. I can't explain that. All I can tell you is that harvesting 750 lb instead of 1500 lbs from an acre but only getting 10% more doesn't keep you viable for very long.
Just a few more tidbits...
- $10k for trellis, rhizomes, irrigation
- yes, put in irrigation or you can add 10 hr/week just for watering
- don't forget a well if you don't have one
- don't forget to build an oast for drying. your grain dryer will just cook the hops
- look into mechanical harvest by year 3. To pick by hand is around 45 minutes/bine. That means 750 labor hours to be completed in a 5 to 10 day window.
- amend the soil and build the trellis first. Putting rhizomes in the ground should be last. You are all ready to late to put a field in for this year, unless your trellis is in and rhizomes are on the way. So take the year to plan it out correctly.
Best of luck to you. I'm not trying to dissuade you, just laying out the facts. We do courses on hop growing about twice a year and usually 90% of the attendees leave deciding they don't want to do it. Of the remaining 10%, less than half will follow through and put rhizomes in the ground.
