I get what you are saying but, self driving Uber Taxis are more of a revolution than a degree of separation.
I think brewing is still fairly young but, has reached a saturation point to where either some of the ingredients need to improve or the equipment has to appeal to more of the masses before it will further it's way into "mainstream".
Since I started doing this, I've reflected on what it takes to make the leap into home brewing--and what kinds of things would be necessary for brewing to have wider appeal. Upon that reflection, I've concluded that for most people there's significant "risk" involved.
IMO, here are issues that must be resolved in no particular order for brewing to become more mainstream:
- Uncertain outcome, or less than desirable outcome.
- Cost
- Time to brew
- Time to wait for beer to ferment and condition
- Places to store equipment
- Can be perceived as complicated
- Learning curve
- New jargon (mash tun, lauter, sparge, rack, etc.) that doesn't make sense
- Fear of failure
I'm sure that there are others that could be added. The ones that were the most concerning for me when I started were the uncertain outcomes, did I want to invest in something I might end up not liking, and whether I had the time to master the complications.
And then there was, for me, this problem: when I get interested in something, I really--REALLY--get interested in it. I want to plumb the depths of all the mysteries, be able to develop a level of mastery with it that will leave me with the feeling that I truly understand it.
Someday I may learn to play bridge, but it scares me--not because I don't think i can learn it, but because it will probably consume me. Brewing, like all my other hobbies that have come and then lost luster, has dominated 90 percent of my learning and recreational time. I've read probably 10 books on brewing, actively comb the web for info (including on HBT), bought Beersmith, tried others' recipes--I'm pretty invested in this.
That last item above--fear of failure--I believe is the biggest impediment to many people. They don't want others to see their failure, they're afraid they'll look dumb, they're too afraid of being unsuccessful.
That doesn't apply to HBT posters by definition, but note how many people here hold up their mistakes and failures for inspection by others, asking for help or simply offering it up as a cautionary tale. I, personally, want to master this thing called brewing so I am more than willing to ask for help because for me the goal is to master it, rather than the goal being preserving my self image (whatever it is).
I don't think most people are cut out for home brewing. It has nothing to do with social class or education or age, though available resources of money and time have something to do with it. Rather, it's simply a willingness to fail, and to learn, and not see failure or a need to learn as a personal flaw.
I think homebrewing will continue to attract people as time and resources permit, but I also believe the majority of the population will never be candidates for home brewing. I know a guy, friend of mine, who I don't think can ever do this. Each time I run across something new I automatically assume I can learn it--it'll take some trial and error, perhaps, but I believe I *will* learn it. My friend doesn't have that confidence to try something new with uncertain outcomes or failures on the way to success.
Anyway, I've waxed too philosophical.