if you don' t have a perfect seal, the airlock won't bubble. you could do a hydrometer test and compare it to the OG. after 2 days it would have dropped many points.
or, it could be lag time. by 'its got bubbles on it' do you mean krausen, or just little bubbles floating to the surface? both indicate fermentation, though if its the latter I'd say you've been in a lag phase for 2 days and by tomorrow morning it should be going nuts.
as for the other question, beer has to get hot and stay hot (like 120f for weeks) to screw it up in aging. the alcohol taste isn't what I'd expect though. i wonder if they got oxidized and the other flavors going stale is just making the alcohol more pronounced?
Primary: English Mild
On tap: Pale Ale, Lancelot's Wheat, English Brown Ale, Steam Beer, HoovNuts IPA
Bottled: MOAM, Braggot, Raspberry Melomel, Merlot, Apfelwein, Pyment, Sweet mead, Cabernet
Gal in 2009: 27, Gal in 2010: 34, Gal in 2011: 13, Gal in 2012: 10