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Old 04-06-2013, 02:30 AM   #2051
Swarley88
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Quote:
Originally Posted by woozy View Post
And I'm going to quit.... maybe... OCD can be a *bitch* sometimes. (Except when it's fun. Or !both! ... sigh ... Apologies in advance...)

Well, yes and no.

Probability of p occurring in n tries =
1 - probability of p not occurring in n tries =
1 - (1 - p)^n

That's the absolute and complete answer and pure answer.

For a small n that's easy to calculate. But for actual number crunching with large n, it is sometimes easier to use:

1 - (1 - p)^n = n*p - (n(n-1)/2)*p^2 + (n 3)*p^3 - ....

Those terms get exponentially smaller and can eventually be ignored. If p is small compared to n then you can assume the probability is n*p. ***BUT ONLY IF p IS SMALL COMPARED TO N***. Otherwise you have to do the second and maybe third term as well.

Example: If p = 1/6,523 and n = 27, then P = 1 - (6,522/6,523)^27. Well, that's a *bitch* for floating points. But if I look at the second term of the series, I see that 27*26/3 must be *really* small compared to (1/6,523)^2 so I can assume that

P ~= n*p = 27/6,523. (but its actually a *teeny* teeny *teeny* bit less. n*p is always a little too big.)

That's safe. And *very* easy.

If p = 1/100 and n = 27 then P = 1 - (99/100)^27 is still a bitch to calculate. In the second term n(n-1)/2 is 26*27/2 and p^2 is 1/100*100. This terms are no longer insignificant. We must include them. But in the third term (n 3) = 25*26*27/6 and p^3 is 1/100^3. Those are insignificant (almost; the fourth term 24*25*26*27/2*3*4*5 compared to 1/100^4 is definately insignificant) So

P ~= 27/100 - 13*27/10,000.

(or if you're picky P ~= 27/100 - 13*27/10,000 + 25*13*9/1,000,000)

That's safe. But not so easy. But easier than 1 - (99/100)^27.

But when p is 1/4 and n is 6. Well .... P = 1 - (3/4)^6 = 1 - 729/4,096 = 3,267/4,096 is *much* easy and much more accurate than any estimate of:

P ~= 6*1/4 = 1.5 WRONG!!!
P ~= 1.5 - (6*5/2)*(1/4)^2 = 1.5 - 15/16 = 9/16 56.25%. Still wrong!
P ~= 9/16 + (6*5*4/1*2*3)*(1/4)^3 = 9/16 + 20/64 = 56/64 = 87.5%. Not so wrong.
P ~= 56/64 - (6*5*4*3/1*2*3*4)*(1/4)^4 = 56/64 - 15/256 = 209/256 ~= 81.64% and as 15/256 *finally* is small enough to ignore so I won't do the final two terms.
Oh christ. Open a new thread and talk about your math there man.


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Old 04-06-2013, 02:40 AM   #2052
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One time I was outside with a buddy at work and we literally saw a moth land on the side of the building and poop. A little drop of something definitely came out its backside. Anyway, I said to my buddy "wow, what are the odds of us seeing that happen?". He goes, "100%, we just saw it". Touchee...


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Old 04-06-2013, 03:45 AM   #2053
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Swarley88 View Post
Oh christ. Open a new thread and talk about your math there man.
He just needs to drink higher ABV beers until the brain cells responsible for this go away.
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Old 04-06-2013, 04:13 AM   #2054
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"90% of football is half mental"

John Madden
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Old 04-06-2013, 05:49 AM   #2055
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Quote:
Originally Posted by russrob81
"90% of football is half mental"

John Madden
Madden may have said that, but it is really a Yogi Berra quote..

"Baseball is ninety percent mental and the other half is physical."
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Old 04-06-2013, 06:25 AM   #2056
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bergen69

I think it went to guitars for a bit. It never goes to the most important subject...Ginger or Mary Ann?
Are we talking one night stand or long term relationship?
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Old 04-06-2013, 06:41 AM   #2057
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bleme

Are we talking one night stand or long term relationship?
If its only one night, why not both?
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Old 04-06-2013, 02:00 PM   #2058
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bleme

Are we talking one night stand or long term relationship?
Never thought of it that way...definitely Mary Ann for long term, she can cook.
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Old 04-06-2013, 02:22 PM   #2059
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mysteryshrimp

The last style on that page is "free beer: Unanimously regarded as the world's finest style, especially when generously shared with friends. Unless it's Michelob Ultra."

I brought 12 Belgian Dark Strongs to a party, made it clear that they were community property. I brought 10 back. I am never doing that again.
Obviously, I wasn't invited.
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Old 04-06-2013, 03:20 PM   #2060
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pdxant

Obviously, I wasn't invited.
Me either. Sounds like he really needs a better class of friends... ;-)


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