Well, negative comments aside (as they've already been shared haha) buy a hydrometer. Why do you say you don't plan on buying one? They're quite cheap and I have no idea why someone would be against using one.
Fermentation times rely on the conditions of fermentation. You say people keep turning the heat off, heat fluctuations are bad but not killer for brewing, but the cooler the temps the slower the fermentation. However, some people argue that fermenting at the lower end of a yeasts tolerance creates a cleaner brew. Without the proper equipment there really isn't any definites as to when it is done. Airlock activity will give you implications, but bubbling could occur with and without fermentation and fermentation could occur with and without bubbling.
Meads: Hababero and Sarrano Capiscumel, Show Mead possibly getting split and flavored, and 12 gallons of Bochet Deliciousness
Ciders:3 Ciders with differing additives TBD, Strawberry/Apple Cider
Wine: Black Cherry Vanilla Port