The hop shortage

I'm hearing here and there that the 2006 hop crop is out in a lot of varieties and that there is doubt if the 2007 crop will sustain demand for the year.

Is this something to be concerned about? Is it just a great marketing strategy? Will it only affect some varieties? Are the people that grow hops at home finally able to say "I told you so and I'm not gonna share!"

when the talk of a shortage first appeared, i took the plunge and bought 3 lbs of assorted pellet hops to be safe for the next year or so.

There's been loads of discussion here.

https://www.homebrewtalk.com/showthread.php?t=43288&highlight=shortage
https://www.homebrewtalk.com/showthread.php?t=43299&highlight=shortage
https://www.homebrewtalk.com/showthread.php?t=43155&highlight=shortage
https://www.homebrewtalk.com/showthread.php?t=43163&highlight=shortage

What you should really be concerned about is that you're hearing about it NOW and we're been posting about it for OVER 30 DAYS!!!

I've been reading about it all over the place but I'm not the reactionary type so I wasn't sure if I should take it seriously or not. I guess I should. For some reason I never read about it on HBT. Thanks for the links EdWort.

Will HBT have a good search soon? Even googling "homebrewtalk hop shortage" and variations gives me nothing.

eviljafar said:

I've been reading about it all over the place but I'm not the reactionary type so I wasn't sure if I should take it seriously or not. I guess I should. For some reason I never read about it on HBT. Thanks for the links EdWort.

Will HBT have a good search soon? Even googling "homebrewtalk hop shortage" and variations gives me nothing.

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use the advance search and type hops shortage, or just 'hops' for the title search (not thread search)and you should find all kinds of threads about it...or google will give you lots of news articles about it...

I'm a complete spastic. I never noticed the other search drop down. I guess when I saw the search in the banner didn't work I assumed that the search on this site wasn't working .

Google works fine in general but I was interested to see what the opinions here were. Now I can see them. Thanks everyone for being so diplomatic in pointing out my stupidity

Jaf.

Look at it this way: if the shortage really gets bad, then you'll just end up brewing the same way Anheiser Busch does-- no hops at all. You'll be brewing just like the big boys!

Worst case scenario: I'm going to have to learn how to be really, really creative with my grains and adjuncts.

What are they saying for the varieties that will be hit the hardest? I've heart hallertau's are out, as are centennials, and cascades are gonna cost some $$$'s. Any others?

High alpha bittering hops..all the C hops, and Simcoes most likely.....

kenb said:

High alpha bittering hops..all the C hops, and Simcoes most likely.....

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C's as in Cascades, Centennial, Challenger, etc?

Maybe a bit off topic:

Quick question, say that the unthinkable happens one year, and it is impossible to get hops at a reasonable price. Would there be other ways to add bitterness to your beer. I was thinking along the lines of citrus zest (that stuff is pretty darn bitter). Would that work?

Austinhomebrew just said the main styrian goldings crop was destoryed in a ?hail storm? I think. Anyway, he expects none when the 2007 harvest comes through.

ryan_boc said:

Maybe a bit off topic:

Quick question, say that the unthinkable happens one year, and it is impossible to get hops at a reasonable price. Would there be other ways to add bitterness to your beer. I was thinking along the lines of citrus zest (that stuff is pretty darn bitter). Would that work?

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Lots of folks use spruce and heather for specialty beers, in place of hops.

ryan_boc said:

Maybe a bit off topic:

Quick question, say that the unthinkable happens one year, and it is impossible to get hops at a reasonable price. Would there be other ways to add bitterness to your beer. I was thinking along the lines of citrus zest (that stuff is pretty darn bitter). Would that work?

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Then you could just brew Apfelwein or something?!

Or as noted already, there are some other plant-life that impart bitterness into beer - yarrow is another not mentioned I believe... ?

EDIT: Although I highly doubt you ever need to worry about this - I'm sure these brewshops will be stocking enough hops for us brewers. Might be out of certain types, may pay a little more, but I'm pretty sure you'll always be able to brew... If worse ever came to worst, you could visit a microbrewery (who definitely would have to contract for their hops supply) and offer them $10 for 2 oz. of hops. I'm sure they may oblige! At least enough to get you by a year or so...

Cheese & I were at a local brewpub the other night and told that Amarillo will be all but impossible to find. Glad I stocked up when I did.

^ Just bought some Amarillo myself! Only could get 4oz. of pellets, but I'll use it sparingly... I have about 2 lb stored up all together and only brew around once per month currently.

The guys I just got some styrian from have amarillo if any one needs. Not by the lb, but by the ounce for $1.50: http://www.leeners.com/hops.html

I was talking about leaf, not pellets. But the guy made it sound like both will be hard to come by. And it also sounds like most of what you get of any variety will likely be in pellet form vs. leaf - at least for quite some time.

Hahahaha, just checked back at the place I got my hops from a month ago; prices are up from ~$10/lb to $50! Feel'n good about that one . I had been hearing all the doom, hence why I stocked up, but I didn't know it had gotten so bad...

This may have been asked before but should I freeze or refrigerate hop pellets?

Also, which hops are gonna be the hardest to find/best to stock up on? I just got back from the HBS and I got a bunch of cascade/saaz/fuggles/chinook. I had no clue if those are the rare ones but they are ones that I have used and like.

The owner of the store told me that Kent Goldings and the Hallersomethings were the first they sold out on.

I was at my HB store Thursday and the owner said he was down to 6 varieties of hops, while he normally has at least 30. He also is pulling his hops off his online store so he can sell to his local customers and he noticed a few other websites are doing the same. Also was mentioned that the distributers are rationing their sales. No fun from the sounds of it.

Afraid of shortages I went by AusitnHomebrew and was lucky enough to buy 1 1/2 lb of Hallertau. I couldn't get it by the 1/2# or # so I just bought a bunch of the oz. baggies but at least they had it. I'm stocked pretty well with all the C's but they have been in the freezer for about 6 months. If things get really bad maybe we could swap a few ounces with one another for varietals that we don't have. I guess I need to ask Edwort a few more questions about his hops in Central Texas. After I re-read my post it doesn't sound too good with all the pounds of this, ounces, baggies, etc. If Uncle Sam is listening; I'm talking about HOPS, I know that they're related to cannabis but I'm only talking about HOPS.

Benny Blanco said:

This may have been asked before but should I freeze or refrigerate hop pellets?

Also, which hops are gonna be the hardest to find/best to stock up on? I just got back from the HBS and I got a bunch of cascade/saaz/fuggles/chinook. I had no clue if those are the rare ones but they are ones that I have used and like.

The owner of the store told me that Kent Goldings and the Hallersomethings were the first they sold out on.

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Freeze em.

the current inventory:

Quantity Type Leaf/Pellet/Plug %AA
4.0oz Amarillo Pellet 8.9
8.0oz Cascade Pellet 5.8
2.0oz Cascade Leaf 6
4.0oz Centennial Pellet 9.5
8.0oz Challenger Pellet 7
2.0oz Columbus Pellet 13.7
7.0oz East Kent Goldings Pellet 4.6
8.0oz Fuggle Pellet 4.5
3.0oz Hallertauer Leaf 3.9
16.0oz Hersbrucker Pellet 4.3
4.0oz Magnum Pellet 11.5
1.0oz Mt Hood Pellet 4.2
4.5oz Northern Brewer Pellet 7.8
2.0oz Nugget Leaf 12.5
4.0oz Perle Pellet 7.8
4.0oz Simcoe Pellet 11.9
4.0oz Styrian Goldings Pellet 3.5
3.0oz Summit Pellet 18.1
0.5oz Willamette Pellet 4.5

the current inventory:

Quantity Type Leaf/Pellet/Plug %AA
4.0oz Amarillo Pellet 8.9
8.0oz Cascade Pellet 5.8
2.0oz Cascade Leaf 6
4.0oz Centennial Pellet 9.5
8.0oz Challenger Pellet 7
2.0oz Columbus Pellet 13.7
7.0oz East Kent Goldings Pellet 4.6
8.0oz Fuggle Pellet 4.5
3.0oz Hallertauer Leaf 3.9
16.0oz Hersbrucker Pellet 4.3
4.0oz Magnum Pellet 11.5
1.0oz Mt Hood Pellet 4.2
4.5oz Northern Brewer Pellet 7.8
2.0oz Nugget Leaf 12.5
4.0oz Perle Pellet 7.8
4.0oz Simcoe Pellet 11.9
4.0oz Styrian Goldings Pellet 3.5
3.0oz Summit Pellet 18.1
0.5oz Willamette Pellet 4.5

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So....where exactly in SLC do you live?? Have an alarm on your house?? j/k

jacobyhale said:

So....where exactly in SLC do you live?? Have an alarm on your house?? j/k

Click to expand...

Well, if it's Utah, it's probably unlocked! I'll drive get away, but I want some of those Fuggles

According to the Department of Agriculture the hop yield for 2006 was down for the first time in ten years, yielding approximately 26% less than the year before. This might seem like a bad sign but I would not worry too soon. The variety that has been the hardest to get for my brewpub has been Hallertau, primarily Yakima.
With the incredible advance of farming technology it seems to me that the future long term is bright. New hybrids with high alpha and cohumulone yields that are drought/wilt resistant have come to the market recently, also according to what I have read the hop farmers are slowly improving their yield per acre.
The only issue that I surmise is that brewers will have to learn to be flexible with newer product coming to market. The next few years will be a great time for experimentation for both commercial and homebrewers. It would make sense that with higher alpha acids in hops that brewers will have less particles in their kettles after whirlpooling and thus increase their yields. We might even see some American varieties implemented extensively in the foreign market, which could help some of our smaller farmers although with the large commercial growers there is always a political element that could throw a stick in the wheel. I have no information to date regarding tariffs that could affect this scenario.
In the long run the issue will not be hops but barley. The current legislation that is driving the market is pushing farmers to grow corn for ethanol. It is hard to criticize a farmer for growing a crop that makes more money, even if that money is a subsidy that is coming directly out of our pockets. I anticipate that grain prices will skyrocket over the next two decades unless the political situation changes or there is another incredible advance in technology. To me the solution will lie in the free market. As long as there is a demand for beer and that demand is high enough nothing will stop the machine. Unfortunately I don't see demand increasing overall considering the rapidly aging population and challenging dietary demands. We will probably see a long term increase in the cost of beer.

I have recently read that chamomile was the primary bittering agent in brews before hops
were used.
Due to the hops shortage that we may be seeing, is this a possible temporary replacement?
Have any of you experimented with (or heard anything about) brewing with chamomile?

This topic has been really beaten to death here of late. My opinion is that while the shortage will increase the prices that we have to pay for hops, resorting to things like chamomile, yarrow, and heather are greatly overexaggerating the situation.

I brew to make good beer. If I have to spend an extra $2-4 to get the hops I want, it's money well spent.

freshops says the same thing on their site, and links to a page that talks about various herbs and spices that can be used.

Personally, I'm with brewtus. Hops would either have to reach like $6/oz or more before I'd even consider using herbs and spices in their place. And even then...

If you wanna get experimental, fine...but I wouldn't switch from centennial to rosemary just because hops are a few extra cents an ounce.

I agree with both the previous posts thank goodness I'm not a hop head but this is all about inflating the price. Everything is going up, gold $800 an oz. Oil $100 a barrel. But than goodness the govt sez inflation is under control or I'd be worried.

2 oz german spaltz
2 oz german tettnang
2 oz uk fuggle
2 oz us perle
2 oz amarillo
1 oz galena
2 oz cascade
2 oz willamette
1 oz us fuggles
2 ozuk kent goldings-picking up 8 more ozs
2 oz uk progress
3 oz uk wgv-going to buy all i can from my local hbs
5 oz uk phoenix
1 oz czech sazz
3 oz chinook
3 oz styrian goldings
7 oz german hallertau
16 oz Santiam-ive havent used it yet but have high hopes

New poster here, but I thought I'd add my thoughts.

I manage a small homebrew supply shop for Ice Harbor Brewing, and what I'm hearing doesn't make me happy (I'm in the middle of re-pricing my current hop inventory as I type this...)

FWIW, I too have heard that the 2006 crop is gone, and what suppliers/distributors have in stock is about it until Late November/December, when the leaf varieties of the 2007 hop crop come in. 2007 Pellets aren't expected to be WIDELY available until the middle of December.

As for availability, I'd direct you to this letter on the Brewer's Supply Group website; it explains things very well, and very starkly. I've been unable to get Cascade pellets for more than 10 weeks now; Liberty, Hallertaur, and Willamette are also difficult to come by. It would appear that both the 2007 and 2008 crops are pretty much gone to existing contracts, so anyone hoping to find MORE available is PROBABLY going to be out of luck. There will be supplies, but...

I haven't had the problem yet, but I've noticed that my suppliers are limiting hop purchases - some to a % of the total order, some by variety and total weight. To give you an idea, our brewers were paying in the vicinity of $4-$5/lb. for Cascades in 2007; the 2008 price (2007 crop) s almost $12/lb; local breweries have spent over$20/lb on the spot market in the past 8 weeks or so - if they can find them.

And lo! I happened into a small amount of Cascade pellets - and they're costing ME the rough equivalent of $18-$20/lb.

It does seem that hop growers are optimistic about the supply of "Lesser-used" varieties - Amarillo, Cluster, Crystal, Horizon, etc., so those may be available next year at reasonable prices. On the other hand, if people start going for those en masse to replace their standard hops, expect availability to drop and prices to rise.

With apologies to Charlie Papazian, What I've been telling my local homebrewers is that 2008 will be the year to relax, EXPERIMENT, and have a homebrew!

Hope this helps folks out!
Rich

tshackton said:

To me the solution will lie in the free market. As long as there is a demand for beer and that demand is high enough nothing will stop the machine. Unfortunately I don't see demand increasing overall considering the rapidly aging population and challenging dietary demands.

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...true, but on the same token, I really don't think the demand for beer will go down if at all. I mean, it's been around for centuries, so unless those dorks up on capitol hill make it illegal again, I don't think it's going anywhere anytime soon...at least I hope not.

A little stroll down memory lane from the Summer of 2006 in the Hallertau region of Germany.

Enjoy!

EdWort said:

A little stroll down memory lane from the Summer of 2006 in the Hallertau region of Germany.

Enjoy!

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man, that reminds me of my trip to germany this last summer. i want to go back right this instant

I talked to some of thw brewmasters at brewers commection and was told that the price may go up to $3. I'm not a hophead so that's not a problem to me. If the cost gets too high, I might experiment in growing my own hops. Still, not being into hops, I'll most likely wind up with too much hops.

FWIW here's my 2 Cents

What free market?

When sugar cane (the better alternative to corn) is subsidised by price supports and corn takes 7 gal. of oil to yield an 8 gal. equivelent and is also subsidised and has a govt. mandated % use. Just what free market is being refered to? This is another big handout to millionaire farmers at the expense of both the taxpayer and consumer.

I agree with another poster that pointed out hops is only the beginning. Grain prices are going to have to skyrocket to compete with corn which has doubled in price.

So if your a taxpayer and consumer you'll pay for this 2X both at tax time and in the so called "free market".

But thank goodness and the US govt. that inflation is under control and the ecomony is doing great.

I plan to grow my own hops and I'll look to find other brewers in my area interested in bulk grain purchases.