Malt barley data from 2010

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lurker18

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The topic has been brought up in another section, in the vendors section, about the supply of barley going down and the price of malt going up. Where I work does a lot of scientific stuff on barley, and the data came out this week for the 2010 crop, if anyone is interested.

Unfortunately it is too big to post here, but pm me if you are interested and I will do my best to get it to you.
 
I could do the basics. This is more of a science paper, how the qualities of varieties are poorer this year, what is hot and upcomming and what is on its way out. I will try a cut and paste to get it smaller and put something up.
 
Barley crop production for 2010, at 6,984,000 tonnes, was 28% lower than the 10-year average of 9,752,000 tonnes. This was largely attributable to reductions in total seeded acres to barley and record high amounts of rainfall across the prairie provinces during the growing and harvest seasons resulting in a negative impact on crop production.
The growing season was greatly affected by excess moisture, which, combined with little heat and sunshine, resulted in crops not maturing as quickly as normal. Wet conditions continuing into fall resulted in a delayed harvest and downgrading of large portions of the crop due to mildew, frost damage and fusarium; limiting the quantity of selectable barley available.
Malting barley selected in 2010 was overall of average quality. Thousand kernel weights and kernel plumpness levels were below long term averages. Protein levels were moderate, rising only slightly from 2009. Barley germination energy levels in 2010 were adequate in general; however water sensitivity was present in most samples requiring modification of standard malting regimes. RVA values were poor (low), indicating high incidence of pre-harvest sprouting throughout the crop. As expected, dormancy was present in some six-rowed varieties.
Malt made from 2010 barley exhibited average levels of extract, good levels of protein modification, slightly elevated beta-glucan levels, and above average levels of enzyme activity promoting good brewing performance. Production of good quality malt was possible from 2010 barley with the application of appropriate malting conditions.
Table 1 – Malting barley cultivars recommended for production in western Canada by the CMBTC, its members, and others in the Canadian barley industry (2011-2012)
Recommended two-rowed malting varieties
Variety Domestic Export Market outlook
AC Metcalfe Established Established Stable demand
CDC Copeland Established Established Stable demand
Newdale Limited Limited Stable demand
CDC Kendall Established Established Declining demand
CDC Polarstar Limited Limited Increasing demand
Recommended six-rowed barley varieties
Variety Domestic Export Market outlook
Legacy Established Established Declining demand
Tradition Established Established Declining demand
Stellar-ND Limited Limited Increasing demand
The 2010 planting season began well in southern and western growing areas, with favourable weather conditions allowing an early start to seeding. Dry soils in western Saskatchewan and central and northern Alberta due to drought conditions in 2009 were relieved by late season rain and snowstorms in May. Seeding progressed well in most areas with nearly two-thirds of the crop planted by the end of May. However, a series of storms during late May and early June resulted in heavy amounts of rainfall over most of Saskatchewan and Manitoba, delaying final planting and causing flooding in fields that had been previously planted. Overall planting progress was halted with approximatly 80 per cent of the Western Canadian crop sown.
Wet, cool conditions persisted through July and August, delaying crop development. Temperatures were the coolest in the western areas of the Prairies, while Manitoba and parts of eastern Saskatchewan were closer to normal. The only dry conditions could be found in the northern growing areas of Alberta during July, which caused stress to crops in the Peace River region. The Peace River region of Alberta and British Columbia experienced drought conditions for most of the growing season and was the only western region to report above normal temperatures.
The cool and wet conditions in eastern regions continued into September, delaying the onset of harvest. By the end of September only a quarter of the harvest was complete. A severe frost was reported in the middle of September in Alberta and western Saskatchewan which caused damage to many crops which were still inmature. Mostly dry conditions and above normal temperatures were reported across the entire Prairie region during October, which allowed for a rapid, although late, completion of the harvest.
Barley production in Western Canada for 2010 was estimated at 6.9 million tonnes, representing a decrease of 22% compared to 2009 and 28% below the 10-year average. Seeded acres were down significantly in Manitoba and Saskatchewan compared to last year, and both well below the 10-year average (Table 3). Acres seeded to barley in Alberta remained consistant, returning production levels to normal after drought conditions 2009 reduced crop yield dramatically. Record high amounts of rainfall across the prairie provinces during this year’s growing and harvest seasons resulted in a negative impact on crop production and quality.
Levels of thousand kernel weight and plumpness were lower than levels in 2009 due to cooler growing conditions which delayed seed maturity. Barley protein levels were moderate, increasing only slightly from 2009 and still below long term averages. Germination energy was aceptable, but significant water sensitivity was observed.
Rapid visco analysis (RVA) is becoming increasingly used by barley selectors to identify sound, moderately and strongly pre-germinated barley, and manage their supply accordingly. This year&#8217;s RVA results revealed that a large proportion of malting barley selections exhibited definite signs of pre-germination (< 50 RVA units); a dramatic contrast to results from 2009. Barley in this condition has a high risk of loosing germination energy with prolonged storage. Sound barley (>120 RVA units) has a high probability of retaining germination energy for a long time; barley exhibiting only moderate pre-germination (50-110 RVA units) has good potential for storability provided proper cool and dry storage conditions. Among different barley varieties tested each year, the six-rowed variety Tradition consistently showed a higher percentage of sound samples. Tradition is known to exhibit dormancy which contributes to a greater resistance to pre-harvest sprouting.
Germination characteristics of 2010 barley were the primary challenge to producing quality malt. While germination energy levels were within commercially acceptable limits, significant levels of water sensitivity were present. Initial malting runs indicated that higher than normal steep-out moisture levels and increased germination temperatures were necessary to achieve adequate levels of modification. A modified steeping schedule with shorter wet steeps and more frequent air rest periods was required to overcome water sensitivity tendencies (Table 4).
This year&#8217;s study resulted in malts with average levels of extract, good levels of protein modification, slightly elevated beta-glucan levels, and more than adequate levels of enzyme activity. Good quality malt was possible from 2010 barley with the application of appropriate malting conditions.
Steeping 6 h wet steep, 16 h air rest, 8 h wet steep, 12 h air rest, 3 h wet steep, 3 h air rest @ 13°C
Germination 48 h @ 15°C, 48 h @ 16°C
Kilning 12h @ 60°C, 6h@ 65°C, 2h @ 75°C, 4h @ 85°C

The rest is scientific numbers, if you want them let me know in PM. BTW these are Canadian numbers.
 
I found this to be very interesting.

2010 barley with the application of appropriate malting conditions.
Steeping 6 h wet steep, 16 h air rest, 8 h wet steep, 12 h air rest, 3 h wet steep, 3 h air rest @ 13°C
Germination 48 h @ 15°C, 48 h @ 16°C
Kilning 12h @ 60°C, 6h@ 65°C, 2h @ 75°C, 4h @ 85°C

I had been wondering about the malting process.
 
So you are suggesting I take a portion of my acreage out of oats production and instead plant barley and hope to harvest malting quality. I'll tell you what, you tell me what the weather will be like for next summer and guarantee me the proper conditions for growing and harvesting it and I will be happy to plant barley.

My neighbor had barley two year ago and had trouble selling it. The local elevator wasn't buying because they couldn't find a market at the same time the brewers were crying out for more barley. You explain that.
 
I grew up on the farm, farmed myself for several years, worked in the country elevators, and now for the government in the industry, and I would have a very hard time telling anyone to plant barley.
The % of all barley that is planted that gets selected for malt is around 20%, and the other 80% goes into animal feed at a fairly high discount. As RM-MN said, other crops have a higher return, are not as weather sensetive, and easier to turn into cash. The amount of malt barley probably will continue to decline for these reasons, so cheap malt will be there, but not every year, and if the volumes continue to decrease, the prices to us homebrewers are going to continue to escalate. We are a speck compared to the big boys (AB InBev, Molsons, etc,), and in really tough years, I can see maltsters not having enough to cover the contracts to these guys, and malt will be as scarce as hops were a few years ago.
 
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