recipe kit OG numbers vs. beer calculus numbers

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borealis

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How accurate are the predicted OG numbers from recipe kits? I am thinking Northern Brewer here specifically. When I enter the ingredients from their recipes into the beer calculus program online, I end up with different numbers. Or is the real answer, they are both estimates and I just need to brew and take my own measurement? I ask, though, because it helps me get a sense which recipe I want to brew before I order ingredients. Thanks.
 
Borealis-

I always printed out the ProMash report for the NB kits when I used them...I put more stock in them than beer calc or whats on the recipie sheet.
 
Thanks for the tip. I just looked one up. Amber ale, recipe says 1047, promash report says min. 1045--max 1060. That seems like a big difference!
 
Make sure the program is using the correct values for extract OG. Beersmith was underestimating my gravities by .006 consistently until I realized that the stock values for their LME were different than what I was using.
 
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