Airlock has no activity

I am new to brewing beer, but have experimented with Mr. Beer; Here is my issue. I just bought a brand new kit. It has been 56 hours and no activity is occurring in the airlock. I read a few articles and tried to make sure the bucket had a good seal. There is water in the airlock and when I lifted the lifted the lid there is signs of fermentation. Anyway if the airlock never ends up bubbling then when should I transfer to the second stage fermenter. I am brewing an ale and it is at 70 degrees constant and off the floor.

Use a hydrometer to tell you when fermentation is complete.
Or just wait a stupid amount of time, like 3-4 weeks.
Airlock activity has no indication or bearing on fermentation.

Beginner here as well and has the same problem on my first batch. Is the little plastic thing floating in the water? If not, you'll want to add a little bit more water. Or if the water level is find, then the airlock might not stuck in enough. Hope this helps.

*water level is *fine*

after the yeast are done with fermentation, they have other things to do before they're really done.

and yeah, airlock isn't a good indicator of fermentation and after fermentation the yeast do other things before they're done and settle out

I like to give them 3 weeks to finish up before taking final gravity reading and then bottling

I get that you're anxious to see how it turned out and 10-14 days won't make bad beer. but 3 weeks will make better beer