What efficiency should I expect?

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goosegrease

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My first AG will happen on Saturday. I don't know what efficiency to expect out of my system. I ordered another 1.5 lbs of my base malt to compensate for possible low efficiency. If I get great efficiency, I will have a higher gravity beer. What would you do.
Thanks,
Jim
 
There are so many factors in what can help or hurt efficiency. Most important is mash Ph. keep it around 5 to 5.5 and you should have great efficiency. My all-grain setup gets me 79% efficiency everytime now. All from keeping an eye on my Ph. Congrats on switching to all-grain. You will love the smell of the grain while your stirring it in your mlt. Keep on keeping on and remember.... check your ph!!!
 
You won't know- and can't guess your efficiency until you brew a beer and do the numbers. The best reason to do this is to learn your number and if it's bad- say like my first all grain- at a 52%- you can ask yourself, "What do I need to improve?"

I ran a steady mid 70's last year. Over winter I tweaked my gear and the first beer of this year was 86%.

I strongly encourage you to take some notes, look at a program and compare your goal to what you achieved and if there is a difference- look at your method and start making a list of 'Problems and Solutions'.
 
What type of mash tun are you using? How will you be sparging? How much does God love you? There are lots of variables in your efficiency. My buddy and I both use cooler tuns with a stainless braid and batch sparge getting around 70% efficiency, people who fly sparge tend to get slightly higher efficiency. Your first time out will be an experiment, it can be anywhere from 50-80%, you won't know until you try...
 
Don't go "off plan" to compensate. Stick with the original plan so you can see how the numbers trend. (like I listened to the sane voice telling me the same thing). My first try was 73 percent extraction but I played around with stuff to compensate for possibly poor experience. Had a heck of a time re running the numbers to see what went right and what could use improvement. KISS.... keep it simple stupid so it is easier to fix/adjust/correct. Not intended to be a slam. Put critical information on a big white board so you just have to look and not search for the information. I put mash info on it, then turned the board up-side-down for boil/hop info. After mashing I flipped the board to show my boil/hop info. Was way easier to see instead of reading from a list.
 
Don't go "off plan" to compensate. Stick with the original plan so you can see how the numbers trend. (like I listened to the sane voice telling me the same thing). My first try was 73 percent extraction but I played around with stuff to compensate for possibly poor experience. Had a heck of a time re running the numbers to see what went right and what could use improvement. KISS.... keep it simple stupid so it is easier to fix/adjust/correct. Not intended to be a slam. Put critical information on a big white board so you just have to look and not search for the information. I put mash info on it, then turned the board up-side-down for boil/hop info. After mashing I flipped the board to show my boil/hop info. Was way easier to see instead of reading from a list.

+1. I have 14 brews in my tummy and still prepare a single page recipie/ brew day schedule sheet before each brew session. Of course the format is constantly changing...er... improving. It'll be complete eventually!!!
 
I am not offended by the KISS method at all, the best plan is usually the simplest, with the fewest variables. What I am attempting to employ with this thread is the 6 P's; Prior Planning Prevents Piss Poor Performance. So, the consensus is no extra grain, and stick to the recipe? To be completely honest I am kind of relieved, it rubbed me the wrong way planning to fail.
Thank you,
Jim
 
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