Let me add my point of view here since this is something I have worked on for a few years now.
Recognition of the problems has caused several spreadsheet authors to 'tone down' their residual alkalinity recommendations and so the situation is a little better but most who understand how things really work have dropped beer color as a 'design parameter' for beer and the idea of an 'RA requirement' to match a particular color seems to be fading.
based on my research I have reworked the SRM to mash pH formula and it does seem to work fairly well once one makes the distinction between color from dark roasted malts and color from other malts. The new formula takes into account that roasted malts don’t contribute nearly as much acid for the same color compared to base or crystal malts. That formula (
http://braukaiser.com/wiki/index.php?title=Beer_color_to_mash_pH_(v2.0)) ended up being a mix of marrying the color and mash pH formulas as well as corrections for practical observations. The latter takes care of some of the inconsistencies.
Well, I know that homebrewers are looking for a tool (or tools) that will help them with this and I admit to liking the idea of getting the mash and water profiles for various styles correct and anything that will help the masses is good. Of course, it's not good if the product doesn't work, the information is misleading, incomplete or inaccurate. If you say that many of the spreadsheets are causing problems or just not filling in all the blanks, I would feel like I needed to look elsewhere for this.
I agree. Brewers, especially home brewers, like the idea to plan their brewing as much as they can. That’s why they developed IBU prediction formulas and that’s why there are mash chemistry calculators that take a stab at predicting mash pH. I would say that a given spreadsheet or program is only “broken” when it causes you to make bad beer.
As an example. When I noticed that John Palmer’s RA spreadsheet didn’t get the expected alkalinity from chalk I first made an experiment to check if that “bug” actually made a noticeable difference in mash pH. Interestingly enough it didn’t and many more experiments followed to better understand what was going in. While it was not John’s intend to implement chalk with only 50% of its alkalinity contribution it worked well in the grand scheme of things and the spread sheet was not really “broken”. But it may have caused brewers to add excessive amounts of chalk to their beer. Based on a recent discussion with A.J there is the possibility that this can harm your beer even if only a small portion dissolves in the mash.
Be careful or you'll get me started on a long discourse on modeling. A spreadsheet represents a model. Some models are better than others but none are any good if you don't put the right data into them. For example, I believe I know how to predict/control mash pH quite closely because I have a pretty good model. But I can't get the data I need to go into that model without doing a lot of hard, dull, repetitive work in the lab. This doesn't mean the model doesn't have value. I can use it to tell me about where mash pH will wind up and about how much acid I need to get it there but I'll use a fraction of the acid and check pH in the mashtun before I add it all.
Reading your paper on RA and mash pH got me started on characterizing various grains and looking into the effects of water and grain more systematically. While I think that there are still mechanism at work that we don’t fully understand or are difficult to characterize I believe that I have developed a model and have broad enough data for a reasonably accurate mash pH prediction. Granted, there are outliers, but based on the feedback I have gotten and data from my own batches it’s doing pretty well. When I come across outliers I may spend the time to investigate them and find the assumptions or data input that was not correct. That may point me to something that needs to be accounted for in the future if it can be characterized.
But I do like the idea of mash pH prediction al lot. when I brew I oftentimes have lots of other things to do around the house. I don’t want to add some acid, test, add more acid and test again. If I can predict that I need 2% acid malt to get to 5.35 and I end up between 5.3 and 5.4 I’m happy. Even if I end up between 5.2 and 5.5 I may not do anything about it. I’m going to be less happy in that case, mostly b/c my mash pH prediction failed me.
Because of the complex interactions between water and malt mash pH prediction models need to be based on a large amount of experiments. It is nice if these experiments align with under understanding of the chemistry that is involved. But even w/o knowing the chemistry one could develop mash prediction models as long as enough data exists that represents the effects of the parameters the model is considering.
The suitability of any given model also depends on the accuracy of prediction that we expect. If we expect to predict mash pH within 0.01 pH units, we don’t have a model or even data to make this happen. If we are fine with +/- 0.1, I think we are there for most practical brewing cases.
I get that. The products are only as good as the data and even then they should be used as a tool, not a magic bullet. I feel like the spreadsheets do an okay job determining (at least) the zip code of where the mash pH will be. The small adjustments can be done later with acid or whatever.
That’s the intend. no more and no less.
I’d like to draw an analogy to IBU prediction. Here we have the same issue. Many factors affect the IBU level of the final beer yet the predictors we are using only consider initial AA content, boil time, wort gravity and hop product type. Some can also adjust for hop age. And many brewers know that the predicted IBU level is not necessarily the actual IBU level and that they may have to aim for a higher or lower predicted IBU level to get the desired bitterness. But we are not having much discussion about the accuracy of these predictions. Mostly because ordinary homebrewers can’t easily measure IBUs. But we can do that for mash pH which is why I believe there is more scrutiny on the pH prediction model.
But there is always a swirling vortex of information as it relates to mineral additions (mash, sparge, kettle), level of minerals in any given beer, water and the role it plays, etc. I keep thinking that I may have made better beer before I got into any of this.
There is more to brewing water modification than mash pH. Furthermore, the spreadsheets only make an attempt at predicting mash pH. They do not attempt to predict the mash pH that would be best for your beer. Just like the IBU estimators won’t tell you what IBU level to shoot for when making an IPA. That’s where brewers need to build up experience and knowledge: what is a pH that works best for this particular beer and how accurate do I have to control this pH.
Kai