What's the long term forecast for the hop shortage?

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Tankard

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A few months ago, I was starting to hear that "the worst is over, the future looks brighter" for the hop scare. Still, it is next to impossible to find the right hops for right recipes. When do they expect things to go back to normal, with both the supply and the prices? This isn't going to be a forever type thing, like gasoline, is it?
 
It will normalize after the new harvest, this fall. My LHBS owner says this has happened a few times before and it is not that big of a deal, the prices will come back down. Maybe not as low as they were, but back to a normal price and availability.
 
It will normalize after the new harvest, this fall. My LHBS owner says this has happened a few times before and it is not that big of a deal, the prices will come back down. Maybe not as low as they were, but back to a normal price and availability.


not completely

New Zealand should be harvesting theirs soon which will ease the shortage a bit. But you got to remember that hops take 2-3 years before they are really putting out a good crop. Look to next year as a little better, but 2 more years until things start to really calm down.

And dont get your hopes up of seeing .50-.60 cent ounces ever again. IMHO I think the majority of homebrewers will be paying about a buck fifty to 2 bucks an ounce from now on once the shortage is over.
 
There was a great article on BYO a little while back...you could probably look it up. Basically, the shortage is big time right now, and the 08 crop (this fall) will help a little bit, but realisitcally not much. If we get out of this funk, it will likely be late fall 2009.
 
Last year was a combination of problems world-wide. So far, it looks ok for the PNW harvest in the fall, although locally, it's been cool and overcast. Not good growing weather at all. 2009, the new acreage here should be yielding.

It's amusing, vineyards planted back during the hop glut of the late '90s are being re-planted with hops, because of the wine glut.
 
You're going to have to look at long term as the next year or two for things to normalize a bit again. All the crops replanted that had been ripped up for corn or pulled because of extreme damage will take that long until they begin to really yield large amounts.

The guy at my LHBS mentioned today that the European crop was doing well, but that it's still a long summer and a lot of acreage had been replanted recently.
 
i just heard from my local brewery that there hop supplier is requiring them to pay for next years hops now. they have only been open two years so there is no way for them to do that. we are talking $40,000-$50,000. i hope they find someway to get through this. i'm wondering how many local brewerys will be forced to close next year.
 
Maybe they should change what they bitter with. Dimebag dopplebock.

Actually, this may be a good time to expiriment with other bittering plants like heather etc... Though heather is not that bitter in my opinion.
 
Hoosier you haven't met the same heathers that I have. They can be quite bitter indeed ;-) Next time I'm at the LHBS I'll meet someone out back to score me a lid of Summit hops.
 
So far the Hop shortage hasn't affected me much. The only hop I wanted and could not get has been Styrian Goldings. In fact, my LHBS is significantly cheaper than oneline (B3, Northern Brewer, etc.). What is killing me is the prices of everything else. It seams as though everything else is doubled in price to do fuel/shipping cost. Ihave medicalbiils to pay so I'm going to have to drastically cut back brewing once I finish the last of my Bulk DME.
 
What I'm waiting to see is the effect of the massive trend in home hop growing. Certainly this was the year of the first year plant. By fall 09, the demand at the homebrew level should be lowered a bit which will reduce prices even if the commercial production stays static. I know for a fact that I won't be buying any Cascade for winter 09.
 
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