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Originally Posted by SpacemanSpiff
It's more to do with pot geometry and pot volume than the grain absorption. In a wide mouth 20 gal pot, 5 gal of wort has a pretty high surface area to volume ratio and that will mean a lot of boil off.
I did a 2.5 gal batch this summer and instead of going back to my old 6 gallon pot for it I decided to go ahead and use my new 10.5 gal pot. I think I was lucky to wind up with about 1.75 gallons in the end.
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I'm new at this, but if you do some boiling trial runs, you can get a good idea of how much you'll boil off, then it won't matter what pot size you use.
Using the previously mentioned formula for a 2.5 gallon batch:
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batch size + absorption + boil off +trub loss = water needed.
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, I started with 4 1/2~3/4 gallons of water, and have ~ 2.7 gallons in my fermentation bucket now.