Production is a funny thing, in 2012 four hives going into the winter. I lost one in the winter, then one in the summer of 2013 (this used to be very rare, but is becoming more common now). The two hives did almost nothing in 2013, and I had less than 60 pounds. This year the weather wasn't great, yet they went like gangbusters - this might be our biggest year.
Good luck with the winter, losing hives is always painful for hobbyists like us. I have been fortunate and only had one year with nothing left after winter. I have been very fortunate with swarms - they seem to swarm a lot when I am around (or else as my wife says they swarm a huge number of times and I am only around for a few, lol). Swarm catching in a good location is the opposite of losing a hive, it is a huge thrill.