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Old 06-27-2012, 09:02 PM   #1
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Default General Stock Trading Thread

Anyone else in the HBT wold trade stocks or follow the market daily?!?!? I am not financial analyst or day trader, but I love following stocks and the economy and investing in companies.


There HAS to be others on this site!


The stock i'm looking at today is SBUX. Its down 2.25% off of the chipotle earnings miss, but I dont think it deserves to be. It's approaching resistant around $51, and while the P/E is a little rich at 30.5x this years earnings, its got over a 26% growth rate, so the PEG is very reasonable!

They are also opening a tea store for their Tazo tea, which i think will do well as I see more and more people drinking tea. thoughts on a 6-12month horizon????

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Old 06-27-2012, 09:19 PM   #2
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I used to have my licenses and I still invest for my own accounts so I somewhat still keep up. I'm more of a fixed income trader but I do trade broad market ETFs from time to time. It's just too easy to game market panic and there has been a lot of it the past 12 months.

I've never thought SBUX made a good investment. Too dependent on too many things that can go wrong. It is way, way overpriced as an investment. It's not good for a trade, IMO, because the indicators point to declining value. Maybe look to buy at $48 or less if it gets down that far. I guess it depends on what your investment or trading strategy is. Some very good analysts think it is a buy but most think of it as a hold.

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Old 06-27-2012, 09:29 PM   #3
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Originally Posted by ReverseApacheMaster View Post
I used to have my licenses and I still invest for my own accounts so I somewhat still keep up. I'm more of a fixed income trader but I do trade broad market ETFs from time to time. It's just too easy to game market panic and there has been a lot of it the past 12 months.

I've never thought SBUX made a good investment. Too dependent on too many things that can go wrong. It is way, way overpriced as an investment. It's not good for a trade, IMO, because the indicators point to declining value. Maybe look to buy at $48 or less if it gets down that far. I guess it depends on what your investment or trading strategy is. Some very good analysts think it is a buy but most think of it as a hold.


I do agree with you that it might not be good for some people. I am 25, and therefore can take more risk than others. Im looking at the chart for coffee:

http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/KCCV1/tab/2

and its gone down over the past year, but starbucks prices keep going up!

revenues:

Revenue & Gross Profits(Millions) 09/30/08 09/30/09 09/30/10 09/30/11
Net Sales Or Revenues 10,383 9,775 10,707 11,700
Cost Of Goods Sold 4,645 4,325 4,459 4,949
Gross Profit $5,738 $5,450 $6,249 $6,751
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Old 06-27-2012, 11:40 PM   #4
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I invested all my available cash in Netflix a while ago, when it was $32. Should have sold when it got over $300, but didn't.

I guess it's a good thing that all my available cash was only enough to buy 5 shares. But hey, My investment is still about doubled today.

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Old 06-28-2012, 04:28 AM   #5
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Originally Posted by mewithstewpid View Post
I do agree with you that it might not be good for some people. I am 25, and therefore can take more risk than others. Im looking at the chart for coffee:

http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/KCCV1/tab/2

and its gone down over the past year, but starbucks prices keep going up!

revenues:

Revenue & Gross Profits(Millions) 09/30/08 09/30/09 09/30/10 09/30/11
Net Sales Or Revenues 10,383 9,775 10,707 11,700
Cost Of Goods Sold 4,645 4,325 4,459 4,949
Gross Profit $5,738 $5,450 $6,249 $6,751
Right but even as your data points out, COGS is rising even if coffee prices are down. Starbucks isn't just affected by the cost of coffee, it's also heavily affected by transportation costs and milk prices (think of all the cream and milk in their products).

More importantly, Starbucks is trending away from the focus on coffee and some locations are selling beer and wine. You also mentioned the tea concept. Starbucks has great strategy when it comes to locating its coffee shops but not all Starbucks ideas work out. Remember a few years back when they were trying to sell more deli foods? Didn't work. People were willing to spend $5 on a coffee but not another $8 for half a sandwich.

You can look at it two ways: either SBUX is trying to diversify to make profits explode or they are losing confidence in their core business. One might make you a lot of money but the other means probable disaster in the long term. That's a real problem because SBUX is at it's highest price ever. Even higher than it was at the market peak in 2008. It's a long way down, especially since they are overvalued.
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Old 06-28-2012, 04:45 AM   #6
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Done a little. I'm not knowledgeable like you guys.

I was given 320,000 shares ( a bit at a time, over two years of consulting) by one of my clients, a medical device company. They were just acquired by a public company - 1:1 stock swap. A week ago. Woohoo. Closing is in July for the acquisition. Funny how all of a sudden I'm watching trading volumes and activity on my iPhone, hourly.

I'm going to Disneyworld!

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Old 06-28-2012, 04:51 PM   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ReverseApacheMaster View Post
Right but even as your data points out, COGS is rising even if coffee prices are down. Starbucks isn't just affected by the cost of coffee, it's also heavily affected by transportation costs and milk prices (think of all the cream and milk in their products).

More importantly, Starbucks is trending away from the focus on coffee and some locations are selling beer and wine. You also mentioned the tea concept. Starbucks has great strategy when it comes to locating its coffee shops but not all Starbucks ideas work out. Remember a few years back when they were trying to sell more deli foods? Didn't work. People were willing to spend $5 on a coffee but not another $8 for half a sandwich.

You can look at it two ways: either SBUX is trying to diversify to make profits explode or they are losing confidence in their core business. One might make you a lot of money but the other means probable disaster in the long term. That's a real problem because SBUX is at it's highest price ever. Even higher than it was at the market peak in 2008. It's a long way down, especially since they are overvalued.

these are great points!

on a separate note, I added you blog to the blogroll on my site. nice work! love reading beer reviews.
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