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Home Brew Forums > Home Brewing Beer > General Beer Discussion > Jim Koch: Craft beer bubble near "popping point"
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Old 11-17-2012, 02:19 PM   #71
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Are you saying that more bars want to produce and sell their own beer and the law makes it prohibitively difficult, or that the law should prevent someone from opening a bar unless they are producing their beer on-site?

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Old 11-17-2012, 03:28 PM   #72
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It's been said before, but in order for the market to continue to grow new breweries will need to be satisfied with local distribution (1-3 communities) and potentially restaurant or bar. This is how Europe manages to support so many more breweries per capita than the US.

Additionally I struggle with the statement that American's have limited pallets. Provided more economical options, the a large %age of BCM drinkers would opt. macro/nano production (provided they aren't a beef tounge triple or something absurd). The greatest obstacle for most craft brews is that they are a luxury item. It's like shopping at Whole Foods and only buying organic locally sourced items. Sure it's great, but for many families not sustainable.

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Old 11-17-2012, 03:58 PM   #73
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Are you saying that more bars want to produce and sell their own beer and the law makes it prohibitively difficult, or that the law should prevent someone from opening a bar unless they are producing their beer on-site?
I'm saying that the way alcohol is regulated and taxed makes it difficult for an individual to make and sell small quantities.
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Old 11-17-2012, 04:13 PM   #74
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Are you saying that more bars want to produce and sell their own beer and the law makes it prohibitively difficult, or that the law should prevent someone from opening a bar unless they are producing their beer on-site?
Not what I got from that at all.

It is absurd to me that a brewer can't stack a couple kegs into their truck and drive 3 blocks to the local bar to put on tap even thiugh they are taxed as a producing brewer.

The laws prevent a small brewer from easily or economically putting their product into the hands of consumers. The easiest way currently is to open a tasting room or a taphouse...yet you can't sell it wholesale in order to do the same thing.
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Old 11-17-2012, 04:18 PM   #75
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Quote:
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It's been said before, but in order for the market to continue to grow new breweries will need to be satisfied with local distribution (1-3 communities) and potentially restaurant or bar. This is how Europe manages to support so many more breweries per capita than the US.

Additionally I struggle with the statement that American's have limited pallets. Provided more economical options, the a large %age of BCM drinkers would opt. macro/nano production (provided they aren't a beef tounge triple or something absurd). The greatest obstacle for most craft brews is that they are a luxury item. It's like shopping at Whole Foods and only buying organic locally sourced items. Sure it's great, but for many families not sustainable.
I think the price is a BIG obstacle for a lot of people...especially the BMC crowd. I have a co-worker who fits the craft beer demographic....college educated with a well paying career. He was asking me about brewing and beer in general the other day. He told me his favorite beer was Natural Ice since it's cheap. He was balking at paying 10 dollars for a six pack of craft beer and I have no doubt he can afford it. The funny part is that I too often balk at paying that much for a six pack...unless it is something hard to find or I am dying to try.
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Old 11-17-2012, 04:29 PM   #76
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Not what I got from that at all.

It is absurd to me that a brewer can't stack a couple kegs into their truck and drive 3 blocks to the local bar to put on tap even thiugh they are taxed as a producing brewer.

The laws prevent a small brewer from easily or economically putting their product into the hands of consumers. The easiest way currently is to open a tasting room or a taphouse...yet you can't sell it wholesale in order to do the same thing.
That was more or less what I meant by the first part of my post...my wording just sucked.
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Old 11-17-2012, 06:07 PM   #77
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This build up to a fictional bubble is nonsense. The only reason for failure would be due mostly to poor business planning. Poor planning could mean anything from lack of capital to location. I live north of San Diego and there are nanos and tasting rooms springing up faster than you can pump $20 into your tank. I have tried many and many I will never try again. Some start ups are dreamers with mad skills and some are backed by brewemasters with pedigree. Any which way you look at it, capital fuels the start up and the quality of the beer will determine the return customers, not Mr. Koch.

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Old 11-17-2012, 09:13 PM   #78
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1st: Stone rocks. Period.

2nd: I agree that some markets are saturated, while others aren't. I also feel that there are many untapped markets in the US, but they are untapped for good reason. Texas is a great example. Sure, there are texans that really want more craft beer, but they are the 1%. 99% of people in Texas want BMC or Shiner.

3nd: There are a lot of breweries out there that aren't going to make it. Their beer isn't that good, and they don't bring anything new or interesting to their market. I don't see a huge 'bubble' popping, but as the market gets more and more saturated, it's going to be much harder for the crappy to mediocre breweries to grind out a profit. Expect to see the boom continue for another two years ago. You'll see a leveling off, then you'll see a metric crapton of 3-15bbl breweries for sale.

Any brewery making excellent beer with an owner that has some business sense will be just fine. There are so many breweries pumping out mediocre beer right now. The great breweries won't have any issue rising above them when the bubble pops.

And one small rant: New breweries that just started bottling: Put a GD bottling date on your beers. No, i'm not going to buy a $7 bomber of your IPA if A. I've never heard of your brewery before, and B. I have no idea how long it's been sitting on the shelf. I'm looking at you Knee Deep Brewing and your $11/bomber Simtra Triple IPA. /rant
Simtra is a pretty good beer.
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Old 11-18-2012, 09:58 PM   #79
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So I think the best way to measure this is simply ask the question....have any breweries in your local area gone under recently? None in my area....just waiting to see if any do.

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Old 11-19-2012, 04:22 PM   #80
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Looks like Asheville is losing it's first brewery:

http://www.citizen-times.com/article...|Entertainment

I had tried Craggie's beers a few times at beer festivals like World Beer Festival and found it to be awful. They were hands down the worst beers I tried at either the 2009 and 2010 World Beer Festivals. After that I just stayed away from their table. My wife and I had our honeymoon in Asheville this past May and went on several brewery tours including Craggie. The beer at their brewery was surprisingly good; a couple were actually fairly unique. I spoke with one of the brewers and asked him why there was such a difference and apparently they were transporting all their beer from Asheville to venues like world beer festival in growlers. They didn't sell any kegs or bottles; just growlers. It was very telling to me that their distributor only sold their beer in Tennessee...in growlers. They didn't sell any kegs as far as I could tell locally at any of the restaurants in Asheville. The locals seemed to have written them off, which is odd in a city like Asheville.

The general consensus I got from other breweries was that Craggie wasn't serious. Asheville is a big tourist crowd and the local breweries are a big draw, so the local brewing guild didn't take kindly to Craggie. I'm not surprised to learn that they've closed, but I am surprised that their head brewer was hired by Oskar Blues. I spoke with him and he looked at me funny when I asked him about their yeast handling techniques - like he had no idea what I was asking him about. I'm fairly certain they just pitched right back on the old yeast cake.

There is a local brewery here in Raleigh, Roth Brewing, that seems similar to Craggie, although their beer at their brewery is just a foul as it is commercially available. It's also telling to me that despite being next door to a distributor, you can only find their beer on tap in a couple random bars here. They sell seasonal bombers of poorly brewed beer and don't seem to have much direction at all. They seem far more interested to wear Viking helmets at the local beer events than to work on basic boring things like temperature control or sanitation. My wife tried their cinnamon porter and spit out on the ground, it is that offensive.

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