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Old 04-05-2013, 09:35 PM   #2041
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Dear lord are we still on that mathematics pissing contest!
All I see is 1/200 blah blah blah
1/346 blah blah blah I'm right your wrong blah blah blah

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Old 04-05-2013, 09:35 PM   #2042
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bergen69

I think it went to guitars for a bit. It never goes to the most important subject...Ginger or Mary Ann?
Mary Ann all the way!!!
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Old 04-05-2013, 09:38 PM   #2043
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This past Easter, I was at a family gathering and someone's uncle was there and he found out that I homebrew also, and he had me try his stout. It was tasty, but my family, being the mexicans they (we) are only like bud light, bud light lime, corona, etc. One of my uncle tried that guys stout and said to him "Oh wow, that tastes just like Sam Adams" I started laughing because I knew he meant it as a compliment, because to him that's probably the top of the line beer, but the guy's face was that of a mortified man, which made me laugh even harder.

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Old 04-05-2013, 09:44 PM   #2044
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On vacation right now and my mother in law, while having her heart in the right place, stocked the fridge for me with "those fancy beers" I like. So, I had to slam a bunch of Becks Saphire and Harp (neither bad beers for what they are) before I could politely go to the store and buy Jai Alai and Dogfish Head 60 minute, etc.

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Old 04-05-2013, 10:09 PM   #2045
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Jeanie!

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"Filled with mingled cream and amber I will drain that glass again. Such hilarious visions clamber through the chambers of my brain--Quaintest thoughts--queerest fancies come to life and fade away; Who cares how time advances? I am drinking ale today"-Edgar Alan Poe

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Old 04-06-2013, 01:30 AM   #2046
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And I'm going to quit.... maybe... OCD can be a *bitch* sometimes. (Except when it's fun. Or !both! ... sigh ... Apologies in advance...)

Quote:
Originally Posted by GrogNerd View Post
fair enough... but then the chances of winning leave the realm of statistics and enters the world of calculus and limits ->100%, but never quite getting there

got it
Well, yes and no.

Probability of p occurring in n tries =
1 - probability of p not occurring in n tries =
1 - (1 - p)^n

That's the absolute and complete answer and pure answer.

For a small n that's easy to calculate. But for actual number crunching with large n, it is sometimes easier to use:

1 - (1 - p)^n = n*p - (n(n-1)/2)*p^2 + (n 3)*p^3 - ....


Those terms get exponentially smaller and can eventually be ignored. If p is small compared to n then you can assume the probability is n*p. ***BUT ONLY IF p IS SMALL COMPARED TO N***. Otherwise you have to do the second and maybe third term as well.

Example: If p = 1/6,523 and n = 27, then P = 1 - (6,522/6,523)^27. Well, that's a *bitch* for floating points. But if I look at the second term of the series, I see that 27*26/3 must be *really* small compared to (1/6,523)^2 so I can assume that

P ~= n*p = 27/6,523. (but its actually a *teeny* teeny *teeny* bit less. n*p is always a little too big.)

That's safe. And *very* easy.

If p = 1/100 and n = 27 then P = 1 - (99/100)^27 is still a bitch to calculate. In the second term n(n-1)/2 is 26*27/2 and p^2 is 1/100*100. This terms are no longer insignificant. We must include them. But in the third term (n 3) = 25*26*27/6 and p^3 is 1/100^3. Those are insignificant (almost; the fourth term 24*25*26*27/2*3*4*5 compared to 1/100^4 is definately insignificant) So

P ~= 27/100 - 13*27/10,000.

(or if you're picky P ~= 27/100 - 13*27/10,000 + 25*13*9/1,000,000)

That's safe. But not so easy. But easier than 1 - (99/100)^27.

But when p is 1/4 and n is 6. Well .... P = 1 - (3/4)^6 = 1 - 729/4,096 = 3,267/4,096 is *much* easy and much more accurate than any estimate of:

P ~= 6*1/4 = 1.5 WRONG!!!
P ~= 1.5 - (6*5/2)*(1/4)^2 = 1.5 - 15/16 = 9/16 56.25%. Still wrong!
P ~= 9/16 + (6*5*4/1*2*3)*(1/4)^3 = 9/16 + 20/64 = 56/64 = 87.5%. Not so wrong.
P ~= 56/64 - (6*5*4*3/1*2*3*4)*(1/4)^4 = 56/64 - 15/256 = 209/256 ~= 81.64% and as 15/256 *finally* is small enough to ignore so I won't do the final two terms.
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Old 04-06-2013, 01:59 AM   #2047
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Krovitz View Post
Haha. Awesome. My boss insists you can make booze with more than 100% alcohol. When asked how that is possible, he just says that's what distilling does.
A lot of folks get alcohol percentage mixed up with proof. They think that 80 proof vodka is 80% alcohol. Which would mean that Bacardi 151 is somehow 151% alcohol.
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Old 04-06-2013, 02:09 AM   #2048
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Hey, what are the odds of the professor successfully building a radio out of a coconut?

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Old 04-06-2013, 02:14 AM   #2049
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Well actually, the odds of something happening are really related to the demand for the product and the price you have to charge to make a profit. Or was it the other way around? Oh I remember now! You have to boil a bud light until it turns black and then you get a Guinness with a super high alcohol content that is equivalent to an entire loaf of bread!

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Old 04-06-2013, 02:25 AM   #2050
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So I was out with a group for pizza tonight and one of the more mature women was salting her can of Busch light...so I asked what she was doing...she said she was giving the beer some flavor! The women next to her said "that's why I brought you the Bud light"...I just walked away.

On another note...I got the kids the Gillian's island dvd's...maybe because I'm older now...but I might be into ginger more now!
What are the odds on that?

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