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Old 05-13-2011, 10:37 PM   #1
NigeltheBold
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Default First Year Brewpub Sales

I'm writing up a business plan and I'm trying to do some market research, but I'm not having much success. There are no brewpubs in my city (Dayton, Ohio), and its hard to get sales data from local establishments because they're afraid I'm a competitor.

I'm trying to come up with estimates for first year beer sales (in barrels). Our brewpub will have a 10 bbl brewhouse and will hopefully be located south of the city in a relatively busy suburban location.

What is a typical sales volume for a starting brewpub of our size? At first, I thought it might be around 500 barrels, but after looking at the numbers of other Ohio brewpubs, I have no idea what to estimate.

Any ideas?



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Old 05-14-2011, 03:09 AM   #2
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The sales volume is based off of the number of seats in the establishment, not the brewing capacity. It doesn't matter how much beer you can brew if you can't fit people in your bar. It also doesn't matter how many people you can fit if you can't brew enough beer.

Start by considering how many seats you expect to have, aka the number of serviceable customers you can have max. Then consider throughout the day how many seats might be filled. Consider that Friday and Sat nights you might fill the place up, but monday for lunch you might only have x amount of seats per hour.

Then consider how many drinks each customer might have. In a brewpub generally people will buy several drinks because it's more adventurous than a regular bar. People who don't even drink beer regularly will ask for suggestions as to what unique beers you have and should likely order. Imagine each person might have .75-1.5 beers during off peak hours, and 2-3.5 during peak hours. Those numbers aren't founded on any sort of real life science, but it demonstrates the concept of drinks per seat which is important.

10bbl is a large amount of beer, so you'd need a pretty big sized brewpub to cycle through that much beer.

Take the average seats per day and average beers per seat, then do the math. Convert total pints to bbl and you'll begin to see how realistic your estimates are. Hope this helps!



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Old 05-14-2011, 02:57 PM   #3
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Wow, thanks for all of the information, cvstrat! I'll do some calculations and post more questions as they come up.

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Old 05-14-2011, 06:47 PM   #4
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It seems that my original estimates were pretty close to my calculations. Around 500 barrels for an 80-seat pub is what I came up with. The pub will be open six days a week with lunch, dinner, and bar service every day.

Now comes the harder part: market research. What do I need to find out through market research? How much beer are local bars selling? What kinds of beers local bars are selling? And what else?

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Old 05-14-2011, 06:53 PM   #5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Chabutna View Post
It seems that my original estimates were pretty close to my calculations. Around 500 barrels for an 80-seat pub is what I came up with. The pub will be open six days a week with lunch, dinner, and bar service every day.

Now comes the harder part: market research. What do I need to find out through market research? How much beer are local bars selling? What kinds of beers local bars are selling? And what else?
With the caveat that I have no experience and therefore I'm not in any way qualified to answer any of these questions... the "what else" that I would want to know in your shoes is what kinds of beers the local beers AREN'T selling that customers wish they were. Basically you'd have to survey people to get to that.
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Old 06-05-2012, 01:57 PM   #6
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10-15 bbl per seat per year will get you started



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