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Old 06-10-2008, 07:58 PM   #1
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Default What's the long term forecast for the hop shortage?

A few months ago, I was starting to hear that "the worst is over, the future looks brighter" for the hop scare. Still, it is next to impossible to find the right hops for right recipes. When do they expect things to go back to normal, with both the supply and the prices? This isn't going to be a forever type thing, like gasoline, is it?

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Old 06-10-2008, 08:02 PM   #2
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It will normalize after the new harvest, this fall. My LHBS owner says this has happened a few times before and it is not that big of a deal, the prices will come back down. Maybe not as low as they were, but back to a normal price and availability.

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Old 06-10-2008, 08:32 PM   #3
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Boerderij Kabouter View Post
It will normalize after the new harvest, this fall. My LHBS owner says this has happened a few times before and it is not that big of a deal, the prices will come back down. Maybe not as low as they were, but back to a normal price and availability.

not completely

New Zealand should be harvesting theirs soon which will ease the shortage a bit. But you got to remember that hops take 2-3 years before they are really putting out a good crop. Look to next year as a little better, but 2 more years until things start to really calm down.

And dont get your hopes up of seeing .50-.60 cent ounces ever again. IMHO I think the majority of homebrewers will be paying about a buck fifty to 2 bucks an ounce from now on once the shortage is over.
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Old 06-10-2008, 08:50 PM   #4
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There was a great article on BYO a little while back...you could probably look it up. Basically, the shortage is big time right now, and the 08 crop (this fall) will help a little bit, but realisitcally not much. If we get out of this funk, it will likely be late fall 2009.

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Old 06-10-2008, 08:53 PM   #5
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Last year was a combination of problems world-wide. So far, it looks ok for the PNW harvest in the fall, although locally, it's been cool and overcast. Not good growing weather at all. 2009, the new acreage here should be yielding.

It's amusing, vineyards planted back during the hop glut of the late '90s are being re-planted with hops, because of the wine glut.

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Old 06-10-2008, 08:53 PM   #6
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Check out the IHB report found here and here.

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Old 06-10-2008, 11:24 PM   #7
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You're going to have to look at long term as the next year or two for things to normalize a bit again. All the crops replanted that had been ripped up for corn or pulled because of extreme damage will take that long until they begin to really yield large amounts.

The guy at my LHBS mentioned today that the European crop was doing well, but that it's still a long summer and a lot of acreage had been replanted recently.

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Old 06-10-2008, 11:44 PM   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Chimone View Post
And dont get your hopes up of seeing .50-.60 cent ounces ever again.
Hops used to be .50-.60 cents an ounce!!! I would be ecstatic to see $2/ounce!

I just started homebrewing in April so they've been $4/ounce since I started.
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Old 06-11-2008, 12:18 AM   #9
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i just heard from my local brewery that there hop supplier is requiring them to pay for next years hops now. they have only been open two years so there is no way for them to do that. we are talking $40,000-$50,000. i hope they find someway to get through this. i'm wondering how many local brewerys will be forced to close next year.

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Old 06-11-2008, 12:35 AM   #10
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Wait... are we talking about prices for hops or weed?

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